033 
FXUS65 KFGZ 231558
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
858 AM MST Tue Feb 23 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Look for warmer temperatures again today with mostly
clear skies and light winds as a mild airmass remains over
Arizona. The next weather disturbance will arrive Wednesday and
Thursday delivering another round of windy and cooler conditions.
Yet another weather system is possible over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Morning observations and model data show that the
current forecast is on track. A dry and mild west to northwest 
flow aloft will remain over Arizona today. Expect a few high level
cirrus clouds with daytime temperatures warming another 5 degrees
on average over Monday's high temperatures. Today will be the 
warmest day of the week.

The next weather system set to move through the Four Corners
region Wednesday/Thursday is trending even drier this morning.
There will still be a chance for a few light snow showers over the
Chuska Mountains/Defiance Plateau region Thursday morning but
elsewhere will remain dry. The remainder of the area will see
increased westerly winds ahead of the system Wednesday afternoon
with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. Winds will shift to the north
Wednesday night and northeast Thursday morning as a cold front
moves through the area, remaining quite breezy through Thursday
morning. Behind the cold front, temperatures on Thursday will be a
good 10 degrees colder in most areas.

Yet another storm system is shaping up to impact the southwest
United States over the weekend. Operational and ensemble model
runs this morning are favoring a deeper trough developing over the
southwest during the Sunday/Monday timeframe. Precipitation
chances have increased accordingly and confidence is increasing in
a light to moderate precipitation event in northern Arizona.
However, given the nature of the "cut-off low" that is forecast to
develop, confidence is pretty low in any specific details and the
precipitation patterns will continue to evolve this week. A few
inches of snow look possible in the high country, but stay tuned
for further detail.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Look for VFR conditions over 
the next 24 hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...On Tuesday, expect a continuation of dry weather 
with afternoon west to southwest breezes. Expect stronger southwest 
winds on Wednesday. Wednesday night, a passing cold front will cause 
winds to shift toward the north, with slight chances for light snow 
showers from the Mogollon Rim northward.

Thursday through Saturday...Noticeably cooler temperatures with 
gusty north to northeast winds are forecast Thursday. Dry weather, 
near average temperatures and lighter west to northwest winds are 
forecast Friday. Stronger southwest winds are expected Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum/MCT
AVIATION...RR/AT
FIRE WEATHER...RR/AT


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff