725 FXUS63 KIND 221454 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 954 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 .UPDATE... The NEAR TERM Section has been updated below. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Light rain will move out during the morning hours and usher in a dry period for central Indiana. Temperatures will warm during the week, and chances for precipitation will return next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /Today/... Updated at 954 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Special Weather Statement has been issued for all of central Indiana for wind gusts to 30-40 MPH at times, through early this afternoon. Dry conditions will continue across the region the system's cold front and light rain continues to depart to our east. Robust westerly breezes will keep temperatures in the upper 20s to upper 30s through midday. While readings may drop slightly through late morning, a slight rebound should be seen this afternoon, especially as winds diminish. Nevertheless the threat of re-freezing moisture on untreated surfaces exists given the thick frost depth underground. Clouds may break this afternoon, but partial clearing will only be expected for southwestern counties today. Temperatures will peak late today in the mid 30s to low 40s for most locations. ...Previous discussion follows... Issued at 306 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Early this morning radar and observations show light rain moving through the forecast area. Winds are out of the WSW around 12 to 18 kts with gusts around 20 to 30 kts. While gusts could decrease a little over the next couple of hours, think gusts of 20 to 30 mph hang around through the day. Temperatures are in the middle 30s to lower 40s with dewpoints now finally similar to the temperatures. As this rain/drizzle moves out over the next few hours, winds will remain up both ahead of and behind the cold front. The front itself in nearing the Indiana/Illinois border. Precipitation will end from west to east across the area yet early this morning, and models all depict this occurring. While the cold advection early this morning could bring sub-freezing air into the area, think precip ends first and temps below 32 lag this. The slower arrival of the cold air should help with concerns over slick spots on untreated roads and walkways. Given the satellite loop showing plenty of clouds upstream, think clouds will hang around for most of the day given the cyclonic flow. && .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday/... Issued at 306 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Tonight a tight pressure gradient will remain in place across central Indiana with surface high pressure suppressed over the western Gulf coast and a low over northern Ontario. Westerly to southwesterly winds should transport in air with more moisture content, and this could create some fog with the warm moist air moving over the snowpack. However, given the stronger winds, not confident in any kind of broader fog threat. During the day on Tuesday the surface low moves off to the east, and this allows the southern high to build north a bit as upper ridging builds toward the area from the west. This combination will allow for winds to shift to southwesterly during the day on Tuesday establishing a good warm advection signature and with the subsidence from the high expect mostly sunny skies that will allow for maximum warming. The one factor still in place to damper the warming will be the snowpack, but across the south this may be gone already by that point. Across the north this will be more of an issue, and guidance captured that fairly well with a good gradient in place across central Indiana for high temperatures for the day. With temperatures and dewpoints both climbing this week, expect snow melt to pick up quite a bit. Water content of the snowpack isn't enough that this alone should cause flooding on area rivers, but will have to monitor for breakup ice jam potential. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday night through Sunday/... Issued at 306 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 Patchy fog is possible Tuesday night with warm air continuing to advect over a rapidly diminishing snowpack. Won't put it into the forecast right now due to the uncertainty related to how strong the winds are currently looking, but it will likely be added in later if confidence increases. A weak upper level system may bring light rain to the area Wednesday and Wednesday night, but dynamics associated with the system are very weak with only slight surface wind convergence related with a passing front being primary cause for precipitation. Model guidance during the overnight runs show that the chances of seeing measurable precipitation are decreasing, so will go with a dry forecast for that timeframe for now. Better chances for rain arrive Friday into the weekend as a much stronger system moves in from the west. Southerly Gulf air will advect into the area for several days ahead of this system priming the area for moderate rainfall at times. The best dynamics look to stay to the south where the surface flow is more convergent along with areas of isentropic lift along the Ohio River, but this far out, confidence in the heaviest axis remains low. A secondary low with a more Gulf origin will then arrive Sunday bringing additional chances for rain to the area. Temperatures will generally be near to slightly above normal through the period. && .AVIATION /Discussion for 221200z TAF issuance/... Issued at 548 AM EST Mon Feb 22 2021 IMPACTS: MVFR ceilings with a few pockets of IFR until after 21z. Winds 10 to 18 kts with gusts 20 to 30 kts out of 240 to 280. Gusts decrease and winds shift out of 220 later this afternoon. LLWS moves back in tonight along with more MVFR ceilings. DISCUSSION: MVFR ceilings expected to last much of the day in the wake of the cold front passage. Could see these clouds scatter and dissipate this evening before moving back in or reforming tonight. A tight pressure gradient across the area will keep wind gusts in the forecast through the area for today through Tuesday. An arriving low level jet tonight will bring additional LLWS to the sites, and lift from this feature will likely create more MVFR ceilings late tonight. CONFIDENCE: High confidence in MVFR ceilings into the afternoon, with low confidence in brief pockets of IFR. High confidence in wind gusts occurring through the day. Medium confidence in LLWS. .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...CP NEAR TERM...AGM/CP SHORT TERM...CP LONG TERM....White AVIATION...CP