596 
FXUS64 KTSA 212311
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
511 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z TAF forecast discussion follows...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Expect improving conditions thru the TAF period behind a weak cold
front. MVFR conditions across far NW AR should improve to VFR 
within a couple hours, with VFR conditions prevailing thru the 
period. An increase in W to SW winds is expected on Monday, 
especially across far NW AR. Future forecast updates may increase 
winds across E OK as well.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 222 PM CST Sun Feb 21 2021/ 

DISCUSSION...
Weak cold front has entered NE OK and will clear western AR by
early evening. Scattered light showers may yet develop along the
boundary as it moved eastward with any rains ending by early
evening across western AR. The post frontal airmass is not cold
and low level winds maintain a favorable downslope component
through tomorrow. This along with an expanding low level thermal
ridge and plenty of sun will allow temps to warm well above
normal. Low levels warm further on Tuesday and sufficient mixing
depth is forecast to allow for much above normal temps Tuesday
with some low 70 degree readings likely for portions of the
forecast area. 

Cold front passes on Wednesday with any locations remaining ahead
of the front by afternoon likely to experience another day of
temps well above normal. The frontal passage is expected to pass
dry with precip chances returning Thursday night as a passing wave
interacts with the elevated frontal zone across the region. The
forecast uncertainty increases for late week through next weekend.
However the overall pattern of troughing over the western states
and downstream southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains is in
general agreement. This pattern will interact with a frontal
boundary and likely produce several precip events with timing and
coverage being the more uncertain forecast elements. The forecast
will carry several days of low rain chances until timing becomes 
more clear. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   27  63  33  67 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM   27  61  33  68 /  10   0   0   0 
MLC   25  64  35  68 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO   25  62  28  66 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV   25  57  33  66 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV   27  57  36  67 /  10   0   0   0 
MKO   25  61  32  67 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO   25  58  32  66 /   0   0   0   0 
F10   26  64  34  68 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW   26  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....30