265 
FXUS64 KTSA 182017
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
217 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Large scale pattern change will pull us out of the deep freeze,
especially by early next week once we lose a sufficient amount of
snow pack, with the next 7 days featuring mainly a temperature 
forecast. Tonight will once again be frigid with light winds, 
generally clear skies and ample snow cover with most areas tonight
falling to single digits and possible below zero again in a few
spots. Far SE OK will likely not have the benefit of cloud cover
tonight and should be colder. As sfc high slides east Friday a
light south wind and sunny skies will finally allow some areas to
rise at leas a little above freezing for the first time in over a
week.

Snow cover will likely take a big hit Saturday night into Sunday 
with increasing southerly flow and rising dew points as the Arctic
airmass continues to fade away. Temperatures will continue a slow
climb, but could end up receiving a good boost by a Pacific cold 
front Monday, with the more maritime airmass replacing the cold 
continental air, and downslope winds. The forecast 850mb temps 
support a significant warmup by Tuesday with values expected to 
reach the 90th percentile per sounding climatology. This may be 
offset some by the recently melted snow cover extending all the 
way back into the Big Bend but the signal for a rise to much above
normal temperatures is present, and snow cover should mostly be 
gone by then. NBM forecast temps are likely too low as a result of
too much lingering snow cover in some of the model solutions, and
will go several degrees above for Mon/Tue high temps.

A cold front is expected to put an end to the warmup, possibly as
early as Wednesday, though nothing even remotely comparable what 
we just went through. Will continue with low rain chances with 
this front for Wed/Thu with temps slightly below normal by 
Thursday. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL    4  35  18  42 /   0   0   0   0 
FSM    9  38  17  47 /   0   0   0   0 
MLC    6  36  19  43 /   0   0   0   0 
BVO    1  33  15  39 /   0   0   0   0 
FYV    5  37  18  44 /   0   0   0   0 
BYV    4  35  19  45 /   0   0   0   0 
MKO    5  33  17  43 /   0   0   0   0 
MIO    3  32  17  41 /   0   0   0   0 
F10    4  34  17  42 /   0   0   0   0 
HHW    9  35  15  40 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


LONG TERM....14