135 FXUS64 KAMA 180456 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1056 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF Cycle MVFR to IFR conditions should quickly impact all three TAF sites by 06Z to 07Z Thursday and then become LIFR to VLIFR by 09Z to 11Z Thursday in low cloudiness and some freezing fog. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR again at all three TAF sites after about 17Z to 21Z Thursday. Light winds, mainly north to northeast, 5 to 10 knots or less will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z Friday. Schneider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 531 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/ AVIATION... 00Z TAF Cycle VFR conditions will become MVFR to LIFR and LIFR at all three TAF sites after 04Z to 09Z Thursday. Patchy freezing fog will be possible at the Dalhart and Amarillo TAF sites after 05Z to 07Z Thursday through around 12Z to 16Z Thursday. Winds will be light mainly north and northeast to east 5 to 10 knots or less becoming north 5 to 10 knots or less after 06Z to 10Z Thursday. Schneider PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 PM CST Wed Feb 17 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tomorrow Night... Widespread temperatures in the teens this afternoon will be as high as the temperatures will likely go. With pronounced vertically staked cold air still in place across the Panhandles coupled with recent snow cover, especially across the southern Texas Panhandle, went below hi-res guidance with low temperatures for tonight ranging from around 0 along the I-40 corridor to around 10 in the far northwestern Panhandles. Minimum wind chill values tonight will range from 0 to around -13 to -14, with colder values in areas with fresh snow pack. Winds tonight will remain light and variable under a large high pressure system moving south that sets up over the Panhandles close to sunrise tomorrow morning. With the stagnant airmass and very light winds over the Panhandles, patchy freezing fog will be possible tomorrow morning for areas mainly on the caprock. However, recent snow pack along I-40 corridor with locally enhanced ground moisture source east of Amarillo to the OK state line may also see some patchy freezing fog tomorrow morning. Any residual patchy freezing fog should burn off going into the mid to late morning hours from north to south. Along with some patchy fog tomorrow morning, areas from Borger to Amarillo may also see some flurries or light snow showers with low level moisture trapped by a pronounced inversion and light northeasterly sfc winds past sunrise, as seen by the latest hi-res upper level analysis data for tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will attempt to go from mostly cloudy to partly cloudy by the second half of the day, but temperatures will still struggle to warm up with higher only in the 20s, still an improvement from today. Temperatures tomorrow night will drop back into the lower single digits for most locations with very cold H850 and H700 temperatures holding strong across the Panhandles. Meccariello LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday... An upper level trough continues to sit over the area with a H5 height around 546 dam overhead. This trough will move off to the east leaving the FA under northwest flow aloft with H5 heights rising about 20 to 30 dam. This will be the start of a good warming trend taking the FA out of this prolonged period of below freezing temperatures. By Friday afternoon several places around the combined Panhandles will make it to above freezing with the exception of areas around Amarillo and east where upwards of 6 inches of snow fell last night. This snow pack will be able to hold some areas right around or just below 32 degrees for the day. Most of this snow should be able to melt on Friday still, allowing for Saturday's temperatures to be a little warmer. Friday night should be the last time for a while where the lows drop into the teens. Southwest winds will pick up during the day on Saturday, and will help temperatures warm up with the western FA reaching the 50s by Saturday afternoon. Some areas in the eastern TX Panhandle along I-40 especially where melting snow may be present still, should at the very least get into the mid to upper 30s. Saturday night, temperatures will drop below freezing again, but not as cold as this past week. A positively tilted shortwave H5 trough will approach the FA from the Four Corners Region on Sunday. This system does not look like it will be bringing any moisture with it on this side of the mountains at this time. Temperatures will be held back in 40s for Sunday afternoon, even for those areas in the eastern FA that could see 50s on Saturday. A surface cold front associated with the H5 trough will be the cause of the temperatures being held back in the 40s. Winds are progged to be a bit breezy out of the north behind this front. Wind speeds will be around 15 to 20 mph behind the front with pressure tendencies around 1 mb/hr. Overnight lows will continue to drop into the 20s the rest of the week. However, slight ridging will occur after Sunday's trough leaves the area. This will allow daytime temperatures to rise into the 50s on Monday and then 60s on Tuesday. Hoffeditz && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ 77/11