763 
FXUS63 KMPX 162358
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
558 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

.UPDATED for 00Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

Center of the surface ridge will get east of our longitude tonight
and we'll see warm advection increase across the area late tonight
and Wednesday. Warm advection and some weak DPVA will occur ahead of
a shortwave trough moving through the region Wednesday, which will
help to create an area of light snow that will traverse the region
from west to east. Precipitation amounts will be minimal, but
snow:liquid ratios look to be fairly high, so widespread trace to
half inch snowfall amounts seem like a good bet, with some localized
areas of around an inch. This could make for some slick spots,
particularly in the afternoon. Otherwise, look for highs to get into
the double digits above zero for many locations Wednesday, with lows
Wednesday night staying above zero from I-35 eastward for the first
time in a while.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

As we near the end of the week, broad troughing that had 
characterized the entire CONUS de-amplifies and shifts eastward into 
the Atlantic Ocean. Zonal flow takes over in its wake and the 
northern jetstream will slowly migrate northward over the central 
CONUS by early next week. Thus, an overall strong warming trend is 
likely by early next week as the currently present, very cold, Arctic
airmass recedes northward into Canada. The forecast looks dry for 
the rest of this week and cloud cover should gradually decrease with 
mostly sunny skies prevailing by Saturday. Temperatures will remain 
10 to 15 degrees below normal through Friday night, with lows a few 
degrees on either side of zero and highs in the teens. Temperatures 
begin their climb by the weekend as low-level southwesterly WAA kicks
in over the Northern Plains. Saturday’s highs are forecast in the 
upper teens to lower 20s. NBM does produce some slight chance PoPs 
across southern MN into west-central WI Saturday night into Sunday 
morning along the edge of a developing warm front. However, forcing 
for precipitation is marginal as poor timing exists between low-level
WAA and 850 and 500 mb trough passages. For Sunday, near normal 
highs (upper 20s to lower 30s) are expected. The GFS and ECMWF do 
have a positively tilted upper-level trough within the zonal flow 
moving through the Plains, causing surface cyclogenesis over the 
Midwest. Due to the progressive nature of the trough, this system 
should stay relatively weak and well southeast of our region, 
limiting any large chances of PoPs Sunday afternoon into Monday. The 
most interesting question for the long-term period is, “How warm do
we get Monday?” NBM currently has highs in the mid to upper-30s 
with lower 40s possible in western MN. This would be nearly 10 
degrees above normal; a stark change from what we experienced this 
past weekend. Ensemble guidance suggests we could be even warmer with
the EPS mean high at MSP approaching 40. Meanwhile, the GEFS mean 
high is even warmer with 43. EPS members also suggest that a high 
just over 40 at MSP is not unreasonable. Whatever the outcome, early 
next week will feel like a heatwave and our snowpack will likely be 
depleted by at least some degree.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 546 PM CST Tue Feb 16 2021

VFR conditions overnight but light snow is expected to develop on
Wednesday and bring MVFR/IFR conditions at times. Any snowfall
accumulation will be less than an inch. Winds will be light and out
of the southeast, along with MVFR ceilings. 

KMSP...
Snow should begin falling after sunrise, with the highest likelihood
of MVFR/IFR conditions around late morning to early afternoon.
Accumulations should be less than an inch, and we anticipate 
ceilings remaining above 1700 ft.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

THU...MVFR ceilings with -SN possible at times. Winds SW at 05 kt.
FRI...VFR. Wind NW at 05 kts.
SAT...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SE at 5-10G15kt.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...   
LONG TERM...CTG
AVIATION...JRB