327 FXUS64 KBRO 152247 AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX Issued by National Weather Service San Juan PR 447 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night): Although conditions have been slightly improving for the past few hours, the Winter Storm Warning, Wind Chill Warning, Freeze Warning, and Hard Freeze Warning have been extended through early Tuesday morning. Dangerous road conditions will continue for the rest of the day in isolated areas especially the northern region, as temperatures will remain at or below freezing. The drier air filtering in will break clouds apart allowing sunlight exposure to potentially melt some ice. High pressure over Central Texas will continue moving eastward, centering over the Middle Texas Coast, allowing winds to weaken and clouds to clear under ridging aloft for optimal radiational cooling at the surface. It is important to mention that any moisture still remaining on the ground heading into Monday night will likely refreeze, causing hazardous conditions. Surface high pressure shifts further eastward allowing for onshore flow to briefly return during the day on Tuesday, allowing highs to range in the mid 40s to mid 50s. .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday): Model guidance continues to show that a 500mb trough will deepen across the central CONUS through Thursday before moving eastward, leaving generally zonal mid level flow through the weekend. As an induced low pressure at the surface develops across North Texas and the Southern Plains, a weak coastal low also develops along the lower Texas coast, riding north along the Coastal Bend of Texas. This will help drag a surface front through Deep South Texas on Wednesday, enhancing brief periods of light rain between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, particularly across the waters and coastal areas. Thereafter, there is a chance for or freezing drizzle as models also suggest the arrival of another surge of colder air accompanying a developing high pressure sinking south into North Texas, with temperatures falling below freezing across portions of the ranchlands. Nonetheless, significant accumulations are not anticipated with this activity, with highest POPs up to 30 per cent mainly over the local waters. By Friday into the weekend, improved weather conditions with warmer temperatures under a generally southeast flow are expected. && .MARINE: Winds have diminished, but hazardous marine conditions with seas up to 10 feet and winds at 15-25 knots with higher gusts are forecast to continue. Therefore, the Gale Warning has been replaced by a Small Craft Advisories for all of the local waters. Much improved marine conditions, featuring generally moderate winds and seas, are forecast for for tomorrow with surface high pressure becoming the dominant weather element. By Wednesday evening and late Saturday into Sunday, marine conditions are forecast to deteriorate once again with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely. This will result from the arrival of a cold front and strengthening of the pressure gradient due to a developing low pressure across the Southern Plains, respectively. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 27 53 48 66 / 0 30 50 20 BROWNSVILLE 26 53 48 68 / 0 20 40 20 HARLINGEN 24 51 45 66 / 0 20 50 20 MCALLEN 25 51 45 66 / 0 20 40 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 22 52 42 66 / 0 10 30 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 32 56 53 63 / 0 30 50 30 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ256-257-351. Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ253-255>257-351. Wind Chill Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ251-254>257-351. Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ248>252-254- 353. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV ICP-SJU