165 FXUS65 KABQ 142156 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 256 PM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Impressive storm is starting to lose its grip on northern and central NM. We will be ending the highlights for all but the far southern tier of zones with the afternoon package. The focus then turns to the temperatures tonight, along with a little wind. It will be bitterly cold tonight from the central mountains on east to the TX border. We will issue wind chill advisories and warnings with the afternoon package for all the east. Just as the current storm moves away the next upstream storm system will head toward NM from the northwest Monday. It's influence will run from Monday night through Tuesday, but one or two more upper level disturbances will quickly follow, with precipitation potentially lasting through Wednesday night. Dry weather will finally return for late in the week and continue through next weekend. 40 && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... Overall conditions have begun to clear or improve this afternoon, with much of the remaining concern still being bitter cold temperatures and wind chills through the eastern half of the state where wind chill advisories/warnings will be laid out through Monday morning. Satellite imagery is showing the upper level trough axis midway across NM this afternoon, with several embedded meso-vortices still producing pockets of snow showers. This activity is mostly south of I-40 now and will continue to decrease in coverage over the next six to twelve hours. Areas north of I-40 should only see light snow activity favoring the west/northwest slopes of the northern mountains. The Day-Cloud Convection RGB is also showing a few spots of convective cu over the Gila and far southern Catron County. A few rumbles of thunder may come about from this activity as it will quickly exit into Grant County. Have decided to cancel a bulk of the winter storm warnings/advisories through the northern half of the forecast area where precipitation has mostly ended. However, impacts that have already occurred from snowy and icy surface conditions are expected to linger given persistent cold temperatures. Otherwise, the main concern as mentioned will be bitter cold temperatures remaining entrenched thanks to the Arctic airmass that bulldozed its way over the area yesterday through this morning. East canyon winds, which reached a peak 62mph wind gust at the ABQ Sunport this morning, have decreased in intensity and will continue to do so through the evening. Despite the decrease in wind speeds, it won't take much for wind chills to reach the low -10s to -20s across eastern NM where actual MinTs are forecast in the in -0s to -10s. This will be the coldest point of the forecast period (and in quite some time historically speaking) as CAA ends with light surface winds turning more southerly after sunrise Monday. Record low temperatures will be monitored for many areas as the seasonal difference will be near 30F-40F below normal. Monday's daytime highs will rebound a bit, but still remain well below normal. Readings across the eastern plains will greatly depend on snow cover and how long low clouds persist into Monday before the sun breaks out. LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... Storm number two will dive southeast toward NM Monday and spread snow into the western and central areas Monday night and farther east Tuesday, with snow continuing Tuesday night except for the northwest. Additional weak short waves will drop into the broad trough over NM Wednesday and Wednesday night, allowing snow to linger. Finally, drier and milder weather return from Thursday through next weekend. 24/40 && .FIRE WEATHER... Winter precipitation comes to a close this evening through tonight, with bitter cold temperatures remaining through Monday morning. Little in the way of snow melt is expected through at least Tuesday due to the bitter cold temperatures, and another winter system bringing more accumulating snow Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, temperatures improve with building pressure heights and more zonal west-to-east flow setting Friday into the weekend. 24 && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Widespread mix of winter conditions with sn, blsn, MVFR/IFR cigs across the forecast area. Snow will favor areas generally south of I-40 through the rest of the day as the overall storm system shifts eastward across the state. A few pockets of sn will still produce TEMPO periods of reduced vis north of I-40, including KFMN and KGUP through the next several hours. Meanwhile, the strong east canyon winds at KABQ have dropped from their peak strength earlier this morning, and are still forecast to gradually reduce in strength through the afternoon. Will opt to extend the current airport weather warning for wind to 21Z as a result. Overall conditions will gradually improve through the late afternoon and evening, with the final forecast challenge to watch for low cigs and potential for fzfg developing overnight into the Monday morning mainly across eastern NM. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 12 38 25 39 / 5 0 70 50 Dulce........................... -3 32 14 39 / 30 10 70 70 Cuba............................ 2 33 21 35 / 30 5 70 80 Gallup.......................... 9 42 24 36 / 10 0 70 90 El Morro........................ 6 38 21 34 / 20 0 70 90 Grants.......................... 2 39 24 38 / 20 0 60 90 Quemado......................... 11 39 23 35 / 20 5 60 90 Magdalena....................... 4 38 25 40 / 20 0 30 80 Datil........................... 8 36 23 35 / 20 0 40 80 Reserve......................... 10 45 21 44 / 30 5 30 90 Glenwood........................ 23 44 31 44 / 40 0 20 80 Chama........................... -5 26 10 35 / 30 10 70 80 Los Alamos...................... 1 30 20 34 / 20 0 50 80 Pecos........................... -6 29 18 35 / 10 0 40 70 Cerro/Questa.................... 3 28 22 35 / 20 5 30 70 Red River....................... -3 22 14 31 / 20 5 30 80 Angel Fire...................... -14 23 8 29 / 20 10 30 90 Taos............................ -6 27 15 36 / 20 5 40 70 Mora............................ -9 29 15 39 / 10 0 30 70 Espanola........................ 2 32 21 42 / 10 0 50 70 Santa Fe........................ -1 27 20 34 / 10 0 50 80 Santa Fe Airport................ -5 29 18 38 / 10 0 50 70 Albuquerque Foothills........... 8 31 26 41 / 10 0 60 80 Albuquerque Heights............. 5 33 24 42 / 10 0 50 70 Albuquerque Valley.............. -1 34 23 44 / 10 0 40 70 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 2 33 25 43 / 10 0 60 80 Belen........................... -4 36 19 44 / 10 0 30 70 Bernalillo...................... 1 34 24 44 / 10 0 60 70 Bosque Farms.................... -4 35 21 44 / 10 0 40 70 Corrales........................ 2 34 24 44 / 10 0 60 70 Los Lunas....................... -2 35 22 44 / 10 0 30 70 Placitas........................ 6 30 25 38 / 10 0 60 70 Rio Rancho...................... 3 33 25 44 / 10 0 60 70 Socorro......................... 1 39 22 47 / 20 0 20 70 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... -3 27 23 34 / 10 0 60 80 Tijeras......................... -3 30 22 36 / 10 0 60 80 Edgewood........................ -11 29 17 37 / 10 0 50 60 Moriarty/Estancia............... -15 28 12 38 / 10 0 40 60 Clines Corners.................. -12 25 15 34 / 10 0 30 60 Mountainair..................... -10 27 17 35 / 10 0 40 70 Gran Quivira.................... -8 26 17 33 / 20 0 30 70 Carrizozo....................... -1 29 18 38 / 20 5 20 70 Ruidoso......................... -4 30 19 36 / 30 5 10 70 Capulin......................... -8 22 8 35 / 10 0 0 30 Raton........................... -12 24 8 40 / 10 0 5 40 Springer........................ -12 25 6 39 / 10 0 5 50 Las Vegas....................... -12 29 16 39 / 10 0 20 50 Clayton......................... -14 14 3 27 / 10 0 0 20 Roy............................. -13 15 6 38 / 10 0 5 40 Conchas......................... -12 18 8 40 / 5 0 5 40 Santa Rosa...................... -12 20 15 42 / 10 0 5 30 Tucumcari....................... -9 20 11 37 / 10 0 5 30 Clovis.......................... -11 21 11 39 / 10 0 5 40 Portales........................ -11 23 9 40 / 10 0 5 40 Fort Sumner..................... -9 24 13 42 / 10 0 5 30 Roswell......................... -2 27 16 47 / 20 0 5 40 Picacho......................... -6 34 18 44 / 20 0 5 50 Elk............................. -6 37 19 46 / 20 0 5 50 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST Monday for the following zones... NMZ223-226-229>237-239. Winter Storm Watch from Monday evening through late Tuesday night for the following zones... NMZ203-210>214. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for the following zones... NMZ208-209-220-224>226-238>241. Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for the following zones... NMZ212-215-221-222-224-227-228-238-240. && $$