896 FXUS63 KGLD 141725 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1025 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 201 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 Across the region this morning, wintry conditions area-wide as bands of light to moderate snow move into the area from the west- southwest. This is ahead of an upper trough currently moving slowly east-southeast over the central Rockies. An easterly fetch remains over the CWA at the surface. Currently looking at temperatures ranging in the single numbers below zero. Wind chills are ranging around -15F to -25F as of 100 AM MST. For the short term period, the weather focus remains on the arctic airmass, dangerously cold wind chills and snowfall from a passing shortwave. The latest Rap40 500mb/water vapor analysis shows to our north, little movement of a low currently over central Canada. A shortwave trough is moving slowly east-southeast off the central Rockies, with a further southerly push going into Sunday. The first surge of moisture with this system is pushing thru Kansas, but the bulk of it south of the CWA. The bands that have moved thru are dropping at least 1-2 inches already between here at WFO GLD and a report in Goodland. Water vapor is showing some drier air wrapping into the system which is also evident on regional radar composite. While this may give a reprieve to some areas over the next couple hours, the passage of the system into the morning hours will continue to bring additional accumulation to most areas. Any more of a southerly push with this system could drag moisture/totals down but will monitor and for now will be leaving totals in current winter wx products as is. This is a fine snow so far that has fallen with about a 20:1 snow/water ratio occurring at this time. Have some areas seeing some potential patchy blowing snow as a result. Latest models still look to clear the system from west to east ending by the afternoon. The other wx factor for today will be the continuing cold temperatures and subsequent dangerous wind chill readings. The ongoing Wind Chill Warning continues to look good at this time, as the current product does go into Monday morning, with a bit of a reprieve for the afternoon. By the evening though on into Tuesday morning, criteria will be close/or even met again for many locales. As a result, will be extending the ongoing Wind Chill Warning into Tuesday morning. Conditions do begin to improve going into Tuesday from west to east as southerly flow kicks in allowing for warmer temps across the area. For temps, with the arctic airmass slowly pulling eastward during the short term period, a "warm up" is expected in area numbers. For today, daytime highs are only expected to reach in the single numbers above/below zero at best. Monday will have mainly single numbers above zero, although a few spots in western portions of northeast Colorado could reach around 10F. As the surface flow increases to the south, highs will bump up as well, but a wide gradient will ensue with teens and 20s west trailing to just the teens east. Overnight lows will still be problematic over the area. Tonight the area will see teens below zero, with a few spots approaching the - 20F mark. Monday night, single numbers to lower teens below zero, then single numbers above/below zero Tuesday night. With the addition of the snowpack from today, all of the aforementioned temperatures may have to be augmented down some if models don't pick up on the area snowpack. Please refer to the Climate section below for all potential records for the area. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 159 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 Dry weather is currently expected throughout the long term. At the start of the period, a disturbance entering west Texas passes just south of the region on Wednesday. By Thursday, northwest flow redevelops aloft behind the departing system as it pushes towards New England. Upper ridging along the west coast slowly progresses through the Rockies and Plains on Friday and Saturday. However, the ridge appears to flatten in the process, with a series of shortwaves in the west to northwest flow. At this point, any precipitation with the disturbances looks to be confined to the mountains. A warming trend is forecast during this timeframe, with highs climbing from the upper teens through upper 20s on Wednesday to the 40s region-wide on Saturday. Low temperatures rise from the single digits above/below zero Wednesday night to the teens above zero Friday night. Wednesday morning, while warmer than previous mornings, could still see a few locations have wind chills near -15 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1025 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 Sub VFR conditions are expected at KGLD and KMCK from taf issuance through the rest of the day with some light snow and reduced visibilities possible. Cigs may bounce in between categories at times. Winds generally from the northeast under 10kts. For tonight winds light and variable. A few of the models are forecasting widespread sub VFR cigs which is possible given the recent snow cover and light winds. Or, as some of us have experienced...the extremely cold temperatures "trick" the models into thinking there are clouds when in fact there are not. Even the automated cig sensors can get tricked into generating clouds at extremely low temperatures when in fact there are none. Anyways, kept things VFR for both terminals tonight through Monday morning. Winds at KGLD become southerly around 8kts by 17z while remaining light and variable at KMCK. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 203 AM MST Sun Feb 14 2021 Record low max daily temperature: Goodland.....14th (8F), 15th (1F), 16th (4F) Hill City....14th (14F), 15th (8F), 16th (8F) McCook.......14th (7F), 15th (3F), 16th (12F) Burlington...14th (5F), 15th (14F), 16th (10F) Colby........14th (12F), 15th (16F), 16th (14F) Tribune......14th (9F), 15th (10F), 16th (14F) Yuma.........14th (17F), 15th (14F), 16th (22F) Record low temperatures: Goodland.....14th (-12F), 15th (-13F), 16th (-17F) Hill City....14th (-3F), 15th (-6F), 16th (-7F) McCook.......14th (-11F), 15th (-11F), 16th (-7F) Burlington...14th (-8F), 15th (-11F), 16th (-16F) Colby........14th (-9F), 15th (-13F), 16th (-11F) Tribune......14th (-7F), 15th (-14F), 16th (-9F) Yuma.........14th (-19F), 15th (-2F), 16th (-9F) February record low temperature: Goodland.....-22F on 2/5/1982 Hill City....-19F on 2/1/1951 McCook.......-26F on 2/8/1933 Burlington...-23F on 2/5/1982 Colby........-31F on 2/12/1899 Tribune......-24F on 2/9/1933 Yuma.........-27F on 2/1/1951 All-time record low temperature: Goodland.....-27F on 12/22/1989 Hill City....-26F on 12/22/1989 McCook.......-30F on 1/12/1912 Burlington...-25F on 1/4/1959 Colby........-32F on 12/22/1989 Tribune......-25F on 1/18/1984 Yuma.........-33F on 12/22/1989 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029. Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for KSZ027-041-042. CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ090. Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST Tuesday for COZ090>092. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ091- 092. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon for NEZ079>081. Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081. && $$ SHORT TERM...JN LONG TERM...JBH AVIATION...99 CLIMATE...JN