483 FXUS63 KDMX 141003 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 403 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 .DISCUSSION.../Today through Saturday/ Issued at 401 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 Happy Valentines Day everyone! Arctic high pressure continues to settle south through the Dakotas this morning and into northwest Iowa later today. The high will allow the Polar Express to continue to infiltrate Iowa as our progression from very cold to very colder to very coldest to continue through Tuesday morning. The Arctic air and a few chances for light snow will ensure that this is not a forecast discussion about nothing. Despite the Arctic cold being a long duration and record breaking event at times, fortunately it will not qualify as a Long Night despite it leaving all of us feeling a bit Frozen. So hold my Friends, when this is over we will be able to say Cheers in the end! Temperatures early this morning are ranging from the single digits below zero south to the teens below zero north. The wind chills are the big headline this morning. Estherville currently has a temperature of 17 below with a sustained 22 mph wind. This places the wind chill at 45 below zero, Zoinks! Wind chill values across the state generally range from the 20s below to low 40s below zero. The reinforcing push of cold advection moving ahead of the Arctic high will move through the state through this morning. This will lead to "high" temperatures remaining below zero today across much of the area today and Monday then maybe, just maybe the heat arrives and we get just above zero on Tuesday. Most locations will have record Min Max Temperatures(Record low Highs) today and potentially again on Monday. Cloud cover is the X factor as the high settles over northwest Iowa tonight and over the entire area Monday night. Overrunning moisture of the cold dome will lead to clouds moving over top of the surface high. Should any areas clear out, especially northern Iowa or the Nishnabotna valley, those areas could make a run for -30 degrees. At this time, expect at least some high level cloudiness tonight and wind to prevent prime radiational cooling. Warm advection moving over the high Tuesday night should also bring thickening cloud cover so have not bottomed out lows though the current forecast of 15 below to 25 below is cold enough, don't you think? Will maintain the Wind Chill warning headline as is through noon Monday. Some uncertainties in wind speed and the potential for the wind to become light and variable Monday night and Tuesday morning, resulting in the wind chill values being negligible compared to the actual temperatures means parts or much of the area could be handled with an advisory Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. As discussed in previous discussions, temperatures will be slow to warm up this week as a long wave trough remains entrenched across the central CONUS. The Arctic airmass will gradually modify/slowly "warm" this week and no real warm advection is apparent until the end of the week. So hooray for high temperatures in the teens by Wednesday and Thursday and we may even see 20 on Friday! Checking climate normals, that is only 15 degrees below normal but may only be 5 to 10 degrees below normal by next weekend. That is right folks, we may see 30 next weekend! Until then, bundle up. Not much in the way for precipitation through the next seven days. An area of light snow is expected over far southern Iowa today with minor accumulations expected. More light snow may clip far southeast Iowa on Monday, associated with a larger system impacting much of the southeast CONUS. The Arctic high with shield much of the state with a vast amount of low level dry air. Did add low chances for light snow for Wednesday with modest forcing passing through the area and with a deep near surface dendritic layer still in place. Possible, snow chances will need to be increased further. && .AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/ Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Feb 13 2021 High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing thorugh the period at the terminals as high level clouds spread across the state tonight. The risk for ceiling restrictions and light snow should remain south of OTM. Brisk winds from the north will prevail through the period. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Monday for IAZ004>007-015>017- 023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097. && $$ DISCUSSION...Donavon AVIATION...Ansorge