808 
FXUS64 KLUB 140908
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
308 AM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

.SHORT TERM...
Ongoing light to moderate snow will continue through the day and 
into the evening hours, eventually winding down west to east by 
midnight in the southern Rolling Plains. The impressive area of 
upper level low pressure, currently just east of the Four Corners 
region will continue to dig southeast and sharpen as we move through 
the daylight hours. The center of the low has closed over the Four 
Corners region and seems to be outperforming model guidance. Light 
snow began a couple hours sooner than expected area wide, along with 
shortwave energy currently moving in from eastern New mexico that is 
also ahead of schedule. With more snowfall than expected occurring 
on the front end of the system, overall storm total by early 
Monday have been adjusted up slightly.

Expect light to moderate snow to occur throughout most of the 
daylight hours across the CWA. There will be stronger bands 
responsible for increased snowfall rates locally, especially later 
this morning and early afternoon, as the base of the closed 
low/trough draws closer from the west and isentropic lift increases. 
North-northeast surface winds will increase late this afternoon into 
the overnight hours as the trough axis pivots east across our 
latitude this evening. The increased winds and extremely cold 
temperatures will lead to life threatening wind chill temperatures 
of -25F or lower from late this afternoon through the overnight. 
Please bring your pets inside and limit your exposure time outside, 
and only travel if you must.

.LONG TERM...
We should see some sunshine return to the area on Monday, but the
arctic air mass isn't going anywhere just yet with snow cover and
a bitterly cold start aiding in limiting upward temperature trend
despite the sunshine. Western counties will see a return to south
and southwest winds as a surface ridge moves across the forecast
area which will help that part of the forecast make a run at 20
degrees Monday afternoon while eastern counties will remain 
firmly entrenched in the cold air. Tuesday will see the approach
of the next upper level trough that will bring another chance for
snow to the area. Increasing cloud cover and potentially snowfall
will probably more the counter the south to southeast low level
flow and have undercut guidance for highs that day. This storm
system is not as clear cut as today's with a consensus currently
showing best chances to our north. It still appears like true
moderation of temperatures will not come until late week when the
upper pattern changes enough to see increasing heights and 
thicknesses across the southwestern CONUS.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>044.

Wind Chill Warning from 6 AM this morning to noon CST Monday for 
TXZ021>044.

&&

$$

55/07