268 FXUS64 KAMA 112349 AAA AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Amarillo TX 549 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs, expect KGUY to remain in MVFR cigs through this fcst cycle, while MVFR cigs return to both KDHT and KAMA later tonight and persist through the end of this fcst cycle. Confidence is low in freezing fog development tonight and Friday morning. There is some potential, but where and when is problematic. Therefore, have omitted this weather element from this fcst. Will continue to monitor trends this evening. Also, some snow flurries are possible at any of the terminal sites. Again, will handle with amendments due to uncertainty in both timing and location. 02 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 PM CST Thu Feb 11 2021/ SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday... Cold air remains in place today, but most areas will clear out for a couple hours at least. Highs may touch the low 30s in areas that clear out for several hours, with 20s in other areas. Low clouds will return tonight, and there may be some patch freezing fog. Right now very shallow saturated layer just above the surface with light winds, could lead to industrial light snow for the Borger/Amarillo area, but the better chance of that to occur and possibly accumulate would be Friday night into Saturday. That being said, pops have been modified in the localized Borger/Amarillo, area to account for the industrial snow potential, and we've even gone with snow accumulation amounts around an inch. Tonight, the temperatures will get down to the single digits and be close to zero in the north, but the wind chills in the northern TX Panhandle and the OK Panhandle will get down in the negative 5 to negative 10 range. Overall the winds will be just light enough to keep us out of Wind Chill Advisory range, even though the wind chill temperatures will be cold enough. If winds are adjusted up even a few MPH that may trigger an Advisory. As we move into late Saturday afternoon and evening the flow will shift more westerly, before the next system dives down and brings the significant impacts Saturday night through Monday. Weber LONG TERM...Saturday Night through Wednesday... The upper level closed low will still reside north of the Great Lakes in Canada. The Pacific Northwest trough will now be over Utah by Saturday night and will cross over West Texas by Monday morning. Latest model runs have started to dig the trough further south with the higher QPF amounts in Lubbock and Midland's areas. This continues to become a concern as the system makes its way onshore tonight with observations becoming ingested into the model runs. Based on some of the soundings across the Panhandles, the snow ratios are likely going to be as high as 20:1. Therefore the current forecasts trends the NBM snow ratios higher, which further adjusts the snowfall totals just a bit higher as well. Temperatures are not a problem with this system, but mainly the moisture source and how long the deep saturation into the dendritic growth zone will last before dry air filters in behind the system. Some isentropic lifting is present and will provide the best source of additional dynamics on Sunday. Light to moderate snowfall is expected to begin as early as Saturday evening and continue through late Monday morning with no major snowbanding expected at this time. However, confidence is high that most of the Panhandles will see a few inches of snow with a potential of widespread amounts of 5 to 7 inches. Again, these amounts may be cut in half if this system dives further south with the main moisture source. Following this system is yet another trough digging in from the Pacific northwest with the chance for more moisture in the Panhandles. Models are starting to dive this system further south as it crosses the Panhandles Wednesday. The main moisture will be ahead of the system and bring another shot of snow to the Panhandles Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models are fairly consistent with this second system and looking through the soundings across West Texas, there is a chance the deeper moisture will be south of the area. This system will continue to be monitored closely following the first system. The story remains the same when it comes to the arctic air mass making its way into the Panhandles. The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday with wind chills ranging from -15 to -25 across the area. Temperatures on Sunday will be a bit tricky with the potential snowfall and cloudy conditions with little warming. Models are hinting at the high for Sunday occurring in the morning with temperatures dipping through the day. Any lingering snow cover will also play an impact on the temperatures into next week. Winds are also to become breezy Sunday and into Monday morning as the surface high bringing this cold air dips south into the Central Plains and pressure gradients increase across the area. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 knots are possible, which could make hazardous conditions across the Panhandles Sunday with light blowing and drifting snow. Wind chills through the day Sunday will likely not get above -5 and then later that night wind chills will drop between -20 and -25 across much of the area. Some records have a chance to be broken as early as Saturday through Tuesday with this cold blast of air. Models have been trending colder late next week and may continue with any additional snow cover, which could cause some portions of the Panhandles to break a record streak for number of days below freezing. The latest conditions this week and future forecasts have a chance for over a week of temperatures below freezing. Rutt AVIATION...18Z TAFS... MVFR/IFR conditions continue over the next 3 to 6 hours at all TAF sites, and skies should clear out in the afternoon to VFR. KGUY, is still in question, and while VFR is possible around 00z, it may be short lived as low clouds may return shortly. But by 09-12Z Friday MVFR/IFR cig's should return. FZFG will not be ruled out in the 09-15z time frame, but confidence is too low to note in the TAFS. Weber && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && $$