735 FXUS64 KTSA 111032 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 432 AM CST Thu Feb 11 2021 .DISCUSSION... Early this morning an axis of weak frontogenetic forcing between 925-mb and 850-mb resided near the Red River which combined with weak warm advection was allowing for scattered areas of light freezing drizzle to continue over parts of Southeast Oklahoma. To the north of this...reduced surface visibilities across parts of East Central Oklahoma into Northwest Arkansas suggested some patchy freezing drizzle/fog was ongoing. Further northward...across Northeast Oklahoma...an axis of vorticity advection was located near the Kansas border...which interacting with the weak shortwave currently moving through the region...was creating patchy snow flurries early this morning. One interesting thing to note...was favorable winds coming off of Lake Oologah in Northeast Oklahoma aiding in the production of a thin band of light snow flurries moving southwest into parts of the Tulsa metro this morning. Through this afternoon...the ongoing precip should begin to taper off and exit by late morning as the forcing and warm advection shift southeast of the CWA and the weak shortwave starts to push off to the east. In response...current winter weather advisories were allowed to continue through 12z and 18z. Depending on surface visibilities at 12z the northern part of the advisory may need to be extended for an additional hour or so. Will continue to watch conditions for any headline changes. Overall though...additional ice accumulations should remain light over the advisory areas this morning. Across the rest of the CWA...cold conditions remain underneath mostly cloudy skies with highs again only warming into the 20s for most locations to lower 30s near the Red River and Arkansas River Valley of West Central Arkansas. In the wake of the departing shortwave today...a near 1040-mb surface high will remain common over the Plains into the weekend with continued cold conditions and northerly winds for the CWA. These conditions will help to create wind chill values in the range from around zero deg to 15 deg above zero both Friday and Saturday mornings. A shortwave looks to dive southeast across the Southern Plains Saturday which may bring a slight chance of light snow to parts of Eastern Oklahoma...though latest trends continue to have this wave remain west and south of the CWA. Thus...only minor snow accumulations are forecast along the western portion of the CWA with no impacts expected. Attention then turns to Sunday and Monday as a more defined low pressure system is progged to move Lee of the Rock Mountains Sunday night and across the Southern/Central Plains Monday. Precipitation chances this time in the form of all snow with current cold air remaining in place are forecast to return during the day Sunday...or perhaps late Saturday night if the GFS timing verifies. Latest model solutions are a little further northward with the track of the upper low compared to 24-hrs ago which could allow for parts of the CWA to get in the dry slot Monday afternoon as the wave begins to lift northeast out of the region. For this forecast...the greater potential for snowfall looks to be Sunday night into Monday morning where there continues to be a signal for higher snowfall ratios with the cold air in place. Uncertainty still remains with the details this far out with amounts/locations and the forecast will continue to change over the next few days. Speaking of the cold conditions in place...with the potential for snow Sunday and Monday temperatures look to become colder with highs Monday forecast to be in the single digits and teens. As the wave moves across the region...gusty northerly winds will aid in wind chill values in the range near 20 below zero to near zero deg across the CWA Sunday and Monday mornings. Conditions may try to warm a few degrees Tuesday before another wave looks to move across the Plains. Additional snow chances will be possible around midweek with this system. In response to these multiple systems through the forecast period...the cold conditions are expected to stick around through much of next week. There may be some hope at the end of the week where the cold surface high moves out and a warming ridge of high pressure sets up for the following weekend. Will just have to wait and see as the cold arctic airmass can be hard to push out. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 24 15 26 12 / 0 0 0 10 FSM 33 25 35 22 / 10 0 0 10 MLC 27 20 30 17 / 10 0 0 10 BVO 22 12 21 9 / 10 0 0 10 FYV 26 17 30 14 / 10 0 0 10 BYV 25 16 27 13 / 10 0 0 0 MKO 25 18 28 15 / 0 0 0 10 MIO 21 12 21 9 / 10 0 0 10 F10 25 18 27 14 / 0 0 0 10 HHW 32 26 37 24 / 20 0 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for OKZ049-053-076. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for OKZ068>075. AR...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ARZ020-029. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-019. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....20