731 FXUS65 KABQ 062331 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 431 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE The leading nose of a strong 80-100kt jet max skirts over northern NM bringing another round strong winds near mountain top level. Mountain wave activity will bring some of this energy to the surface in a hit-and-miss fashion immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. KLVS is the most favored TAF terminal, but confidence is low on when exactly this starts, so started with TEMPO before higher confidence of stronger winds during the early morning hours of Sunday. LLWS will also be a concern at KLVS before these strong winds reach the surface, and this LLWS impact could stretch eastward over the northeastern plains as far as KTCC, but lower confidence of if this reaches below 2k ft keeps this mention out of the TAF for now. Elsewhere for most areas south of I-40 or west of U.S. 550 will see winds decouple overnight with breezy to windy westerlies returning Sunday afternoon. 24 && .PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST Sat Feb 6 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Strong west to northwest winds will continue through early Sunday along and east of the central mountain chain, with occasional gusts up to 60 mph. Daytime highs will edge 5-15 degrees above normal across much of the state through Tuesday. However, a pattern change is in store, as arctic air begins to settle into the eastern portion of the state as early as Monday night. Widespread wintry precipitation is possible by late week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)... The short term is essentially a wind and temperature forecast through Sunday night. The short term high resolution models continue to indicate what would be a high wind event for the peaks and east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountain later tonight, and the HRRR spreads some of the stronger winds towards and into the I-25 corridor in spots, later tonight. Some of the guidance is hinting the stronger winds will also spread farther south along the east slopes, impacting the Clines Corners area. Went ahead and upgraded the existing High Wind Watch to a Warning and added the Las Vegas to Raton area as well. Also put the Central Highlands and Guadalupe County in a Wind Advisory, and expect that may be extended or expanded into Sunday afternoon, as guidance indicates the wind could taper off a bit in the morning, then increase again Sunday afternoon as the surface low over eastern NM deepens. Highs Sunday will be about 5-15 degrees warmer than normal, and overnight lows will range from about 5-10 degree warmer than average, despite the very dry airmass across eastern and southern NM. LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)... The flow becomes a bit more westerly on Monday, although breezy to windy conditions may still persist along and east of the central mountain chain, where 700 mb winds are still reaching 45-50 kts. Otherwise, temperatures will be 5-15 degrees above normal on Monday. By as early as Monday night, an arctic air mass begins to creep into northeastern New Mexico. The shallow mass seems to retreat slightly on Tuesday, as it gets eroded by the westerly flow. With a strong 1050 mb high parked over Canada (almost 2-3 STD's of normal), the cold air once again tries to advance Wednesday and Thursday, with a gap wind potential for the middle Rio Grande Valley Wednesday night. From here, the 12z GFS run shows the arctic air making it to the central mountain chain by Friday, with temperatures 25-30 degrees below normal across the eastern plains. The ECMWF keeps the arctic mass confined to the eastern portion of the state and snow mainly confined to the northern mountains. Decided to make very little changes to the max/min temperatures in the extended, given the low confidence in recent model guidance trends. 99/31 && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry northwest flow aloft into Tuesday trends more westerly mid to late next week. Another round of strong to possibly damaging winds is expected along the Sangre de Cristo mountains again tonight. At least localized critical fire weather conditions are likely Sunday and again Monday in an area from near Las Vegas to Clines Corners, Corona to Santa Rosa and back to Las Vegas. Fair to poor overnight humidity recoveries will be followed by sub 15 percent minimum humidities and warmer than normal high temperatures both Sunday and Monday afternoons. However, only low to moderate instability is forecast, and that was the deciding factor at this time, for holding off on issuing a Fire Weather Watch. A very cold airmass will progressively ooze westward over eastern NM Tuesday through Friday, although forecast models differ whether or not and when the cold air could make it into the Rio Grande Valley. This may not happen until Friday night or Saturday. Humidity values area wide will trend higher by mid to late next week, as temperatures cool down. There will be chances for snow over the north starting late Tuesday, then spreading into the east by Thursday or Friday. 99 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for the following zones... NMZ212-223-233. High Wind Warning from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM MST Sunday for the following zones... NMZ213>215-227>229. && $$