419 FXUS64 KJAN 062330 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 530 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered showers will continue this evening ahead of a cold front that will move through the area after midnight. MVFR/IFR conditions will be common during the evening with IFR ceilings behind the front after midnight. The low ceilings will rise to MVFR by mid morning and clear from the southwest after noon./GG/ && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Sunday... A shortwave will swing east through the region overnight. In response, a developing surface low over the northern Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon, will shift northeast over the Florida Panhandle tonight. Meanwhile across us, a cold front will shift east through the forecast area late tonight. Ahead of these features, scattered to numerous light rain showers will continue to develop and lift northeast across the CWA. In the wake of the front overnight, rain will exit the region and winds will become northwesterly. This will cause slightly cooler drier air to advect into the region, as high pressure likewise builds south into the forecast area on Sunday. Quiet conditions will return, with lows starting the day Sunday from the middle 30s to around 40. Clouds will gradually break over the area Sunday afternoon, with highs ranging from the middle 40s to middle 50s. /19/ Sunday night through the week... The long term forecast is much like a roller coaster with plenty of ups and downs, and the models are providing twists and turns with their solutions. Initially early in the period, we will experience dry weather with fairly seasonal(or above) temperatures. The region will be on the western side of surface high pressure as well as southwesterly to zonal flow aloft. This will lead to temperatures during the day on Monday and Tuesday in the 60s and 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s Sunday night before warming into the 40s and 50s Monday night. Models continue to bring a boundary into the region and linger it in the north Tuesday, and this will lead to some rain/shower chances across the region. Temperatures will be a little cooler, especially in the north, on Wednesday but still fairly warm in the south. The main story comes later in the week. Models continue to trend warmer and delayed with the cold air. Will continue to follow the previous forecaster in keeping most of the precipitation as rain and adding some thunder as well. As the colder air moves in later Thursday night there looks to likely be some kind of mixed occurring before the precipitation moves completely out of the region. The question remains as to how much of this changes over before the precipitation moves east. Model soundings show a warm nose that may slowly erode as the colder air overtakes the region. Have opted to include more of a sleet/rain/freezing rain mix before some potential changeover to snow. This is the most uncertain part of the forecast and conditions can certainly change given how far out in the forecast this is. However, it does appear that a little more of a warmer solution is starting to emerge. The precipitation looks to move out of the region Friday and the cold air does move in across the region as a roughly 1040mb surface high drops south across the Plains. Overnight lows into the weekend will be the coldest we have seen thus far with temperatures dropped into the lower 20s across much of the area by Saturday night. It looks like there is some recovery during the day but still chilly with daytime highs in the 30s and 40s. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 41 52 36 63 / 45 0 0 2 Meridian 40 50 33 63 / 48 0 0 4 Vicksburg 41 52 37 64 / 41 0 0 2 Hattiesburg 41 55 34 64 / 30 0 0 5 Natchez 41 53 38 64 / 25 0 0 3 Greenville 39 47 36 59 / 57 0 0 0 Greenwood 39 48 35 61 / 65 0 0 1 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$