718 FXUS63 KABR 062123 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 323 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Skies have cleared across most of the area today under the influence of high pressure. Decent mixing has allowed winds to stay in the breezy category, and in combination with cold temperatures, has kept wind chills well into advisory criteria all day. Even though winds are expected to diminish tonight, wind chills will remain in advisory criteria into Sunday morning as temperatures will remain quite cold. Attention then turns to a system that develops along the northern lee of the Rockies, then slides southeast over the Western High Plains late tonight into the day Sunday. The main question will be just how far eastward the snow associated with the system will make it. Most models indicate the eastern extent will be somewhere over the western half of the CWA, so will stick with a general location in that area. Snowfall amounts look to be minimal (a few tenths of an inch or so), except for the southwest corner of the CWA, where an inch or so looks possible. The snow looks to end sometime Sunday afternoon, with the surface high then reinforcing itself over the area Sunday night, keeping winds light, but temperatures very cold. Low temperatures tonight will range from the single digits below zero west, to the teens below zero east. Highs on Sunday will range from the single digits below zero northeast to the single digits above zero elsewhere, with lows Sunday night once again in the single digits below zero to the teens below zero. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 322 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 The main story in the extended period will be continued below normal, bitterly cold temperatures as a large upper-level trough associated with arctic air holds fairly steady across Southern Canada and the US Northern Plains. Late in the period by next week Saturday, the majority of EPS, GEFS and CMCE members shift the upper- trough east, and thus a meaningful moderation of temperatures will be possible. In the meantime however, will be watching for only slight variations in the magnitude of cold for daytime highs/nighttime lows. NAEFS and ECMWF percentiles from the ESAT highlight Friday as having the lowest 850mb temperatures, in the 1 to 0.5 range, as the core of the arctic air may drift further south into our area. Fortunately in terms of wind chills, sfc high pressure will be a dominant feature leading to relatively light winds through the period. However, there are a few instances where the pressure gradient tightens some due to a glancing low pressure system/shortwave trough, leading to elevated breezes, namely Tuesday afternoon (strongest over the Prairie Coteau) and again Thursday. Additionally, the best chance for precipitation (snow, perhaps measurable) exists in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe, most likely across the southwestern CWA. Details at this time are fuzzy however. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1122 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions will prevail across the area today into this evening. An area of MVFR cigs and MVFR vsbys in light snow will affect the southwestern part of the area late tonight into Sunday morning, including KPIR. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...Lueck AVIATION...Parkin