272 FXUS62 KMHX 062113 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 413 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Coastal low pressure will impact the area tonight into Sunday. High pressure briefly builds into the area Monday with unsettled weather possible across the area for the middle to latter half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Sat...The primary forecast challenge through the rest of the afternoon and early evening will be how quickly the lower levels will saturate as high pressure slides off the NE NC coast with return flow and virga bringing low level moistening. Regardless of timing, the trend will be for virga to become sprinkles and light rain over the next several hours, with widespread rain developing by late evening as low pressure sliding up the Southeast Coast brings ample low to mid level WAA and broad destabilization overnight through early Sunday morning. Will continue to show categorical rain chances late tonight, with a few areas of moderate rainfall possible. Rainfall amounts generally 0.5 to 0.75 expected overnight. Though soils remain saturated, this is not expected to be enough rainfall to bring about any significant flooding issues. Additionally, expect breezy east to southeast winds along the coast overnight as the low approaches. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 340 PM Sat...The low center will cross near/over the Outer Banks and Pamlico Sound around sunrise Sunday morning. Modest instability in the warm sector on the east side of the low justifies inclusion of slight chance thunder to the categorical to likely POPs, but the area where thunder is possible will ultimately depend on the low track. Severe potential will be very low. Drying will likely develop quickly from SW to NE in the wake of the low mid-to-late morning as strong upper level subsidence develops. However, wrap around low level moisture could persist through much of the day, keeping cloudy skies at least through early afternoon, with occasional sprinkles or drizzle. Some clearing is expected late in the afternoon. If coastal areas along and south of the Outer Banks do end up in the warm sector, they will likely see high temps first thing in the morning in the mid to upper 50s. Further inland, persistent CAA through the day will limit highs to the mid to upper 40s, occurring in the afternoon when some sunshine is expected. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 4 AM Saturday...High pressure builds in Monday. A series of weak systems will push across the area through the mid week period with a stronger system possible late in the week. Sunday Night through Monday...Drier air and subsidence develop Monday as high pressure builds in from the north but will quickly push offshore Monday night. Temps will be near to slightly below normal this period. Tuesday through Saturday...Near zonal flow will develop mid week with a series of weak systems moving through the flow aloft bringing periods of unsettled weather. However, upper level support will be limited and not anticipating much qpf. A bit more amplified system may impact the area late in the week with higher qpf totals possible. Guidance continues to vary with the timing of the systems and will limit pops to chance at the most through the period. Southerly return flow develops Tuesday bringing a nice but brief warm up with temps expected in the 60s. A cold front progged to push through the area Tuesday night with temps closer to climo for the rest of the period. && .AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Short Term /through 18Z Sunday/... As of 1255 PM Sat...Cloud cover continuing to increase this afternoon from south to north as band of low-level frontogenesis spurs shower activity along the coast. This feature will continue to advance north through the day with deeper moisture advecting in its wake. Cigs lower to MVFR after sunset and then to widespread IFR after midnight with periods of rain. Visibilities could lower to a couple miles or worse in heavier precipitation. Light northeasterly winds today gradually veer overnight and quickly become northwesterly by midday Sunday as a cold front pushes across the area, with winds gusting up to 20 kt at times. LLWS is a concern overnight with 50-60 kt LLJ passing over the area. Shear forecast to be easterly initially, becoming southwesterly as jet exits the area. Long Term /Sunday through Thursday/... As of 430 AM Saturday...Skies expected to gradually clear through the afternoon Sunday with pred VFR expected Sun night and Monday. A series of weak systems expected to push across the region through mid-week with periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Short Term /Today and Tonight/... As of 345 PM Sat...Low pressure moves up the Southeast coast tonight, crossing the waters early Sunday morning and then departing toward the Northeast. Expect steadily increasing easterly winds this evening becoming breezy late and trending more southeast to south through the pre-dawn hours. 20-25 kt winds mainly confined to the coastal waters, though some gusts to 25 kt possible for inshore waters as well. Seas respond by steadily increasing through the night, reaching 5-8 ft early Sunday morning. SCAs for the combination of wind and seas go in to effect for the coastal waters south of Ocracoke Inlet at 10 PM, and north of Ocracoke Inlet at midnight. Winds Sunday morning are dependent on the realized low track, with 20-30+ kt winds mainly focused on the east side of the low/over the coastal waters. Then, as the low departs later in the morning, CAA ensues and more uniform northwesterly flow develops. SCA conditions arrive for the Pamlico Sound in the afternoon with gusts up to 30 kt, with 20-25 kt gusts possible at times for the other inland sounds and rivers as well during the afternoon. Seas only gradually subside to 5-7 ft through the day as northerly swell begins to fill in. SCAs for the coastal waters continue through the day Sunday. Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/... As of 5 AM Saturday...High pressure builds in Sunday night and Monday. Winds quickly diminish late Sunday/Sunday night but seas up to around 6 ft may linger across the coastal waters into Monday morning. High pressure builds into the area Monday then pulls offshore Monday night and Tuesday. A cold front is expected to push through the waters Tuesday night and the post- frontal northerly surge may bring minimal SCA conditions across portions of the waters Wednesday, with moderate winds returning Thursday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Sunday for AMZ135. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EST Monday for AMZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EST Sunday night for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CB SHORT TERM...CB LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...SK/MS MARINE...SK/BM/CB