802 FXUS63 KARX 062052 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 252 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday) Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 At 1 PM, a secondary push of Arctic air was pushing southeast across the forecast area. This front was located from Wausau to Oelwein Iowa. Much of the snow with this system is southwest and south of the area. There are some visibility restrictions across northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota, but this is more related to some blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures are colder than our typical low temperature ranging from 0 to 7 degrees. For tonight, skies will be mainly clear across the region and west northwest winds will range from 5 to 10 mph. Like the past couple of days, there continues to be a large spread in the low temperatures tonight. From the NBM, there is a 10 to 20 degree temperature spread at most locations. The same thing can be found in the NAM and GFS MOS guidance. There is a 10 degree spread at Rochester and 11 degree spread at La Crosse. Last night, the GFS MOS was far too cold. As a result, trended a bit closer to the NAM MOS and NBM. Wind chills for tonight and Sunday morning will primarily range from 20 to 35 below zero, so stayed with the Wind Chill Advisory. On Sunday, another shortwave trough will move across Iowa. This system will cause an increase in the clouds during the morning. The snow has been trending south over the past 2 days, but there are some NAM and ECMWF runs with some snow across northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin. Due to this, kept a small chance of snow. Again the GFS looks too cold with its temperatures, so trended more toward the warmer NAM and NBM. High temperatures will be 5 degrees either side of zero. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Forecast concerns through the extended will be on and off light snow and flurry chances combined with a prolonged stretch of cold temperatures. Highs through the extended are mostly in the single digits. Lows vary from single digits to double digits below zero. The guidance has a large spread of 15 degrees early in the week and 20 to 40 degrees for mid and late week low temperatures. Low wind chills with a bit more wind than normal. After Sunday morning, wind chill advisories look to be more marginal until later in the week; Friday/Saturday when a stronger push of colder air drops southward. Within the cold 500mb pattern throughout the week, there are weak waves that may produce a light snow/flurry activity Sunday night and Monday, Thursday night and Friday. The 00Z EC also had snow/flurry chance Tues night and Wed, Thu-Saturday. No significant snows through much of the week...trace to half an inch. The GEFs has more of a spread with the Thursday into Friday storm system with the mean still an inch or less. The NBM is mainly dry. The EC EPS is also on the dry side with means a trace to half an inch with more spread with the 12th and 13th and into the following week. Taking a look at the EC EPS probability of 850mb temperatures below - 20 and -30C, the coldest air is over Canada into northern MN. The - 20C solidly expands across much of MN into WI Sunday morning and lifts northward but remains nearby through much of the extended, expanding again southward into Iowa by day 7. With the combination of sub-zero temperatures and winds. We have pockets of the forecast area hitting wind chill advisory criteria each day. Not as much wind Monday morning, but still some locations -20 to -25. More widespread -20 or colder wind chills for Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1138 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 A shortwave trough will move south of the area this afternoon. It looks like it will bring a brief period of MVFR ceilings to the TAF sites for this afternoon. Skies will be mainly clear tonight and then another shortwave trough moving south of the area will bring another round of mid clouds for Sunday morning. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 240 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 How unusual is it to have a stretch of 8 consecutive days below zero? For the period of record at RST, they had a stretch of 8 consecutive days or more below zero 87 times. The last time was Feb 1, 2019. The EC EPS says they could go 14 days. That has happened 11 times, but not since Feb. 6 1996. On the 11th and 12th, there is a bigger spread on the low temperatures, which could break the streak. For the period of record at LSE, LSE has had a stretch of 8 consecutive days 67 times before. The last time was Feb 1, 2019. For a stretch of 14 days...and that has happened 7 times and not since January 31, 1963. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for WIZ017-029-032>034. Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for WIZ041>044-053>055-061. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for MNZ079-086>088-094- 095. Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for MNZ096. IA...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for IAZ008>010-018-019- 029. Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for IAZ011-030. && $$ SHORT TERM...Boyne LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...Boyne CLIMATE...Zapotocny