762 FXUS64 KOHX 062010 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 210 PM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .DISCUSSION... Pressure falling this afternoon along the Louisiana Gulf coast. Development of the sfc low appears to be underway. Meanwhile the shortwave axis still resides upstream and is heading our way. The 2 features will work in unison tonight and bring rain and then snow to much of the mid state. Soundings and freezing level analysis reveals a changeover from rain to snow around midnight across the Plateau, and then a few hours later elsewhere. Therefore, the Plateau will see the most snowfall with 1-3 inch snow totals expected. For that reason, the winter weather advisory will continue but I will add another tier of counties to the west of the current area. Additionally, the start time will be pushed back to 03Z. Further west toward I-65, we are still looking at a half of an inch of accumulation. An SPS will be reissued to cover that. Otw, overnight lows tonight still look like they will range from the mid 20s northwest to the lower 30s far south. Could be some tricky driving for your Sunday morning. Moving on, clearing skies for Sunday afternoon. The fair weather pattern will continue through Monday night. Temperatures will be on the seasonably cold side until Monday when highs reach into the mid 50s. In the ext fcst, confidence remains quite low with the Euro and GFS solutions still way apart. For that reason, I will be adhering to the NBM. In fact, I made very few edits in regard to the extended NBM grid formatter. The eventual infiltration of some arctic air is still indicated on the NBE. However, it looks much more reasonable than the ridiculously cold GFS, which has become rather proficient at chasing the arctic air. As for the NBM precip chances, low pops will be commonplace through the period with a rain and snow mix across the north and mainly at night. My official grids show a low temp of 18 on Saturday morning with a high of 33F. That looks reasonable, especially when CPC shows well below normal temps for the 6 to 10 day period. && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF DISCUSSION. VFR conditions expected for the first quarter of this TAF cycle, but cigs/vis will drop quickly this evening as our next weather system arrives. Look for IFR to LIFR conditions as light rain changes to a RASN mix, and eventually to all snow around 08-09Z for all terminals. Precip will end from west to east starting around sunrise and conditions should improve back to MVFR before the end of this cycle. Winds will pick up a little around 04-05Z with a few northerly gusts of 18-20 kts overnight as the cold front passes through Middle TN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 29 40 26 55 40 / 90 0 0 0 10 Clarksville 24 36 23 49 35 / 80 0 0 0 20 Crossville 29 37 24 51 39 / 90 20 0 0 10 Columbia 31 41 26 57 41 / 90 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 32 41 27 58 41 / 90 10 0 0 10 Waverly 26 38 25 52 37 / 80 0 0 0 20 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for Cannon-Clay-Cumberland-De Kalb-Fentress-Grundy- Jackson-Overton-Pickett-Putnam-Van Buren-Warren-White. && $$ DISCUSSION......21 AVIATION........Unger