652 FXUS61 KCAR 061805 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 105 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today followed by high pressure tonight. Low pressure will track south of the region Sunday. High pressure will cross the region Monday. Another low could cross the region Tuesday then exit across the Maritimes Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Update... Surface low pressure will exit across the Maritimes today, while an upper level trof lifts across the region. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with isolated/scattered snow showers across the north and mountains this afternoon. Across Downeast areas, isolated snow showers are possible early. Otherwise, expect mostly cloudy skies early, then partly cloudy later this afternoon Downeast. Expect breezy conditions across the region this afternoon with gusts up to around 30 mph. With the gusty winds, have included areas of blowing snow across northern areas this afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the mid 20s to around 30 north, to the mid 30s interior Downeast with mid to upper 30s along the Downeast coast. Have updated the forecast to adjust for current conditions along with afternoon temperatures, clouds and snow shower chances. Previous Discussion... High pressure will build across the region tonight. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies across the region. Lows tonight will range from the single digits above zero across the north and low to mid teens central and Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Ridge axis wl bisect the CWA Sun morning before sliding east into Canada with return flow commencing by 15z. Sfc low wl be ejecting off of the Carolina coast Sun morning and tracking to the northeast on Sun. Expect that snow wl begin to enter swrn zones around noon on Sunday with hipres still in control acrs the east. Questions continue to center around how close coastal low wl be to the Downeast coast. Operational GFS and EC indicate a closer track than 00z NAM and CMC, with EC heaviest on qpf amnts. Looking at ensemble guidance indicates more spread with lopres locations from EPS and more clustered on GEFS. Given uncertainty hv contd with likely pops for Downeast areas with slightly higher qpf amnts, tho not as juicy as EC would indicate. Hv indicated categorical pops acrs the far southeast Sun evng as low begins to wrap up twd the Bay of Fundy. Cannot rule out warning criteria snows to the south of the Rte 6 corridor in Washington Cnty twd MDI but wl allow day shift to take another look as guidance has gradually trended north with system but hv been fairly stable over the past 2 runs. Given that this wl be an open wave and does not begin to close off until over Nova Scotia hv adjusted qpf down btwn 00z and 06z Mon. Snow showers look to continue Mon morning acrs the north as system departs into the Canadian Maritimes. Pressure gradient wl rmn tight on Mon aftn with possible blowing snow as snow ratios wl be close to 20:1. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds in Mon night and with clear skies and light winds, radn'l cooling conds wl be maximized. Hv undercut guidance significantly acrs the north with most areas dropping blo zero by Tue morning. High pressure and brief s/wv ridging wl be present at the start of the extndd. Clds wl increase fm the south and west as system appchs fm the Great Lakes. Hv gone with hichc pops over Downeast on Tue tho model discrepancies continue with mvmnt of system between both the operational and ensemble runs. Cold temps wl follow this system thru the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR north and mountains this afternoon with still isolated to scattered snow showers, VFR/MVFR early with isolated snow showers early this afternoon Downeast, then VFR. West winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to 30 knots across the region this afternoon. VFR across the entire region tonight. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots early tonight, then light winds overnight. SHORT TERM: Sunday...VFR diminishing to MVFR across the north late and IFR over Downeast terminals by afternoon in -sn. Light S becoming ESE 5kts in afternoon. Sun night...IFR in -sn. NNW 5-10kts late. Mon...Mainly VFR with stray MVFR cig across the north. NW 10-15kts and gusty. Mon night-Tue...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR late. Light W becoming light SE. Tue night...IFR in -sn. Light N wind. Wed...Mainly VFR. NW 5-10kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No changes to marine headlines. A Gale Warning remains in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intracoastal waters, into tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the intracoastal waters into tonight. SHORT TERM: Winds start off below SCA levels then increase to aoa 25kts Sun evening as low pressure moves south of the waters. Seas slowly increase above 5 ft in serly swell Sun evening and remain elevated into Mon evening. Winds will approach 25kts toward the middle of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-051. && $$ Near Term...Norcross/Duda Short Term...Farrar Long Term...Farrar Aviation...Norcross/Farrar Marine...Norcross/Farrar