887 FXUS63 KMPX 061745 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 438 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 It's a cold morning out there, but this is just the beginning. Readings range from a degree or two below zero across southern Minnesota, to 7 or 8 below north across central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Cold air advection and some increase in cloud cover this morning should keep temps nearly steady through the day. The clouds are associated with a passing disturbance that will slide to our south. Light snow will be confined mostly to Iowa, but cannot rule out a brief period of light snow as far north as I-90. Winds will subside some tonight as surface high pressure builds eastward and its axis orients itself from Alberta southeast to southwestern Minnesota. This is an ideal setup for extremely cold temperatures. Surface winds will subside with the approach of the high in an already cold environment from recent CAA, while the ridge will keep any high clouds to the west. If winds decouple, widespread lows in the -20s are likely in this pattern, with widespread -30s and maybe some -40s across the northern half of the state. Strongly believe the bias-corrected guidance is contaminating the forecast a bit, so favored lows closer to the NBM's 25th percentile. Wind chill headlines appear to be in good shape. There are some warning criteria values forecast across central Minnesota overnight, but it is possible winds could be lighter than predicted and we went a bit more aggressive with lows. The high will be centered over the CWA Sunday with another disturbance expected to pass to our south. Cloud cover will overspread the region, thus not expecting highs to climb above zero. Light and variable winds do mean wind chills shouldn't be much of an issue by afternoon. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 438 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Nothing has changed within any guidance to suggest a change to the overall forecast for this week, with a prolonged stretch of cold weather spurred by an upper level Low centered to our north in Canada. This pattern looks to persist or even retrograde westwards by midweek before finally moving eastwards, which hopefully will signal an end to the bitter cold once it occurs. The concern is in just how far west the upper level Low ends up, as this could introduce a chance at precipitation back into the forecast, mainly looking at Thursday or later right now. Guidance has yet to really pick up on this beyond a tenth or two of QPF within deterministic models, with GEFS ensemble members still pretty sporadic across the board. The active weather otherwise looks to remain south of the area as the upper level Low dominates the large scale weather pattern and keeps any other systems far enough away to avoid the impacts. Generally, we can expect a fair bit of sunshine throughout the week, but temepratures will remain frigid with highs generally in the single digits above or below zero as lows dip into the 10s to 20s below zero. Wind chills look to generally be within the 20s to 30s below zero beginning Tuesday morning and continuing through Friday. Once we get a better signal on when the upper level low pushes farther east, we should have a better idea on just how prolonged this cold stretch will end up being. The general outlook would continue to point towards below normal temperatures at least through the middle of the month. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 A deck of scattered to broken low-level clouds with MVFR cigs has developed over most MN terminals. Cigs will be around 2500-3000 feet (though RWF has dropped to 1800 feet). Winds will remain northwesterly gusting to near 20 knots this afternoon. These clouds should exit the region late this afternoon to the southeast. Afterwards, skies overnight into tomorrow morning will be mostly clear with only a few high clouds and slowing northwesterly winds. Towards midday Sunday mid-level clouds begin to return. KMSP...A broken deck of clouds with MVFR cigs looks to persist into the late afternoon before finally exiting southeast. Northwesterly winds will also gust to near 20 knots. Overnight, skies will mostly clear and northwesterly winds will lighten. By Sunday afternoon, scattered mid-level clouds are forecast to return. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...MVFR possible. Wind WNW 5-10kts. TUE...Mostly VFR. Wind W 10G20kts. WED...Mostly VFR. Wind WNW 5-10kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood- Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington- Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine. Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for Douglas-Morrison- Pope-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd. WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix. && $$ SHORT TERM...Borghoff LONG TERM...TDH AVIATION...CTG