457 FXUS64 KLZK 061714 AAA AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1114 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .UPDATE... Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion below. && .AVIATION... Ceilings will begin to lower as precip begins to make its way into the state from OK over the next 4-6 hours. Some -SN will be possible across N AR terminals this evening, but overall the precip won't be very long in duration. While vsby may decrease for a period this evening, low ceilings will remain in place through the end of the period across most terminals. Winds initially out of the E/SE will transition to N/NE through Sunday morning. && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 450 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021) AVIATION... There will be lots of clouds over Arkansas this morning, but with VFR conditions. As the day progresses, areas of rain will increase, and clouds will lower with fog in places. Conditions will become MVFR/IFR. Late this afternoon into this evening, some snow is possible in about the northern two to three rows of counties. Precipitation will end tonight, with VFR conditions returning in the southwest. Low clouds/MVFR conditions will continue elsewhere. Winds will be east/southeast at 6 to 12 mph today, shifting to the north/northeast tonight. (46) SHORT TERM...Today Through Sunday Night A cold front was poised just to the north of Arkansas this morning. A storm system in the Plains will track along the front, and will spread precipitation into Arkansas today. Precipitation will increase from the south and west this morning, and across the rest of the region this afternoon/evening. Mainly rain is in the forecast today given well above freezing temperatures in most areas. The highest elevations of the Ozark Mountains and a couple of peaks in the Ouachitas may have some snow, but that is about it. Heading into this evening, the system will drag the front into the region as passes through, and Arctic high pressure will begin settling into Arkansas from the north. As it turns colder toward the Missouri border, there will probably be enough moisture for more widespread light snow in the northern two to three rows of counties. Locations that get snow will end up with nothing to a dusting on the ground, with up to an inch in the higher elevations. Some snowflakes may mix with rain in central sections, but with no accumulation. All precipitation will come to an end by midnight. The sky will remain partly to mostly cloudy, and temperatures will drop below freezing in most of the state. The exception will be the southeast where readings will stay a few degrees above freezing. Cold air will remain in place on Sunday, with dry conditions and below average temperatures in the forecast. This will be a glancing blow, with Arctic high pressure relocating to the east Sunday night, and return flow keeping temperatures near seasonal. LONG TERM...Monday Through Friday The long term fcst continues to remain complex and uncertain regarding anomalously cold temps and wintry wx. The PD begins w/ a broad longwave H500 troughing pattern over the CONUS...notably, quasi-zonal flow will be prevalent over the Cont Divide, w/ lee cyclogenesis present over the TX panhandle. A region of strong sfc high pressure lkly driving an outbreak of Arctic air over the Nrn Great Plains will be located over the Upper Midwest. As such, a strong baroclinic zone is anticipated to be draped over the Cntrl US, extending back up towards the N/W, pooling up over the High Plains and bordering against the terrain of the Rocky Mtns. Mon and Tues...the aforementioned sfc low pressure is anticipated to track Ewrd along the Red River Valley. WAA will be prevalent over the fcst area ahead of the advancing sfc low, developing a low-level warm nose across the state. The presence of this low-level zone of > 0C temps will lead to a more complex precip type fcst late in the fcst PD. At this point, the latest suite of long range guidance has...again...depicted differing solns regarding the evolution and progression of the Arctic frnt. Current thinking is still siding w/ the cold frnt sagging S/wrd through the state on Tues, w/ colder air filtering into the Nrn half of the state, and Srn AR potentially staying more mild initially. Chc PoPs will lkly accompany the FROPA over much of the state on Tues, w/ modest frozen precip chances remaining over far Nrn AR given a much cooler vertical temp profile will be present behind the frnt. Over the next few days, it appears the frnt will stall over the AR/LA/MS border region, keeping minimal Chc PoPs in the fcst area, wherein some frozen precip may be seen over the Nrn half of the state, lkly consisting of a freezing rain mix along the transition zone over Cntrl AR, and a sleet/ice mix in far Nrn AR. Thurs through the end of the PD...an H500 wave is progged to pivot S/wrd out of Canada, leading to an amplifying upper-lvl pattern and producing troughing over much of the Cntrl US. The movement of this feature will aid in driving lingering sfc high pressure over the Nrn Plains into the Cntrl and Srn US, supplying a shot of Arctic air into the fcst area. As this feature evolves, attention will turn to hazardous temperatures across the state, particularly over Nrn AR w/ sub-zero to single digit wind chill values possible near the end of the PD. W/ this in mind, as the fcst continues to evolve and confidence increases, those w/o proper heating should make preparations, and pets/animals who reside outside should be checked frequently or brought into shelter if possible. To summarize, the long term remains a complicated fcst, and confidence is holding steady in regard to a cold snap of anomalously and even dangerously cold air intruding into the fcst area late in the PD. Confidence remains lower on the potential for hazardous wintry wx through the latter half of the term, but the possibility is still non-zero. The grainy details on magnitude and coverage of any hazardous winter wx will continue to be monitored...Stay tuned... && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && $$ Aviation...67