147 FXUS61 KGYX 061511 AAA AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Gray ME 1011 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Fair but breezy weather is expected today with gusts up to 30 MPH expected. Low pressure is expected to pass southeast of Cape Cod Sunday into Sunday night. Accumulating snow is expected, with the highest amounts expected on the coastal plain. The low pressure train looks to continue early next week with our next chance of wintry precipitation centered around Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Update...Clearing over most of the area now and winds are starting to get gusty with some mixing. That overall trend will continue into the early afternoon. No major changes. Previous discussion... Impacts: Minimal. A few snow showers possible in the mountains. 725am Update...Made further adjustments to PoPs for eastern zones to account for the light snow showers moving through the area. AUG did report some light snow out of these so bumped PoPs up into the chance category. Also adjusted temperatures to match the latest observations. The rest of the forecast looks to be in decent shape. 525am Update...Made some minor adjustments to temperatures to match the latest observations and better align things through the first half of the morning. PoPs were increased over portions of western ME through the next few hours to account for that persistent area of light snow showers continuing its slow march east. The rest of the going forecast looks to be on track. Previously... An area of snow showers persists over northern zones with both Berlin and Whitefield reporting light snow at this time. In addition, the fog from earlier tonight looks to be on its way out as winds pick up. A few snow showers are expected across the mountains today, but otherwise no precipitation is expected with dry westerly flow developing this morning and continuing through the day. It will be somewhat breezy, making it feel cooler than the forecast mid 20s to mid 30s high temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... Impacts: Widespread accumulating snow expected on Sunday as low pressure passes to the southeast of the region. Still some uncertainty with amounts, but the highest amounts are expected along the coast. Slick snow-covered roads expected for most locations Sunday afternoon and evening. Quiet weather is expected tonight as high pressure quickly passes to our southeast. The high should allow some locations to clear out this evening, but winds will probably remain elevated for long enough to nullify ideal radiational cooling conditions; however, did go ever so slightly lower than the model consensus for lows. Low pressure is expected to pass southeast of Nantucket on Sunday, putting NH and western ME on the northern side of the system and close enough for at least coastal areas to see accumulating snow late Sunday morning into early Sunday evening. Precipitation type does not look like an issue for this system as temperatures throughout the column are expected to be cold enough to support snow across the region. Specific snowfall amounts, however, remain uncertain. The first issue is the track of the system; a track closer to the coast would favor more snow, but any shift back to the east would mean the opposite. The second issue is the QPF forecast. Overall, the system looks wetter than the previous forecast, so QPF was bumped up accordingly. However, there are considerable differences between the wetter high-res guidance and the drier global model guidance, even here a little more than 24-30 hours from onset that leaves some uncertainty in the QPF. That said, it seems safe to say at this time that the highest amounts are expected along and near the coast and over into southwestern NH; these areas are currently in the 3-4 inch range, but amounts decrease from there as you head inland. Coastal Rockingham could end up seeing even higher amounts than this, necessitating the issuance of a winter storm watch there. Amounts will likely change in future forecast updates depending on how things trend amongst the guidance. Portions of NH may see an end to the snow late in the afternoon, but it looks to still be ongoing for most of the region as we head into Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure will move away from the forecast area Sunday night with any snow ending. The exception may be the mountains where upslope snow showers may persist into early Monday. The next short wave trough to approach the region will likely bring another round of snow to New England on Tuesday into Tuesday night. There are still timing differences in the 00z guidance suite. However, most guidance does support a light to potentially moderate snowfall centered around Tuesday. At this time it looks as though the 00z deterministic and ensemble guidance is a bit flatter with the short wave trough so at this juncture, the potential for a more significant snowstorm seems to be waning. However, a plowable snowfall remains in the cards. A more amplified low pressure system is being modeled for Friday and/or Saturday with a potentially more significant winter weather event. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term...A bit of a mess this morning with lingering fog and snow showers. However, winds will pick up this morning and mix out the fog and the snow showers will come to an end. Gusty northwest winds should diminish tonight as high pressure briefly passes through. Widespread IFR conditions expected on Sunday in light to moderate snow. Long Term...VFR conditions return later Sunday night and Monday as low pressure pulls away from the forecast area. Another chance of widespread snow late Tue into Wed could mean more IFR or lower conditions then. && .MARINE... Short Term...Upgraded the gale watch to a warning for the outer waters and issued a SCA for the bays. Winds and seas diminish tonight as high pressure passes over the waters. SCA conditions expected over the outer waters on Sunday as low pressure passes to the southeast. Long Term...SCA conditions are expected Sunday night and Monday into the wake of low pressure. There is a chance that low end gales may occur. High pressure then builds over the waters Monday night into Tuesday with subsiding conditions. A period of SCA conditions will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure is expected to move northeastward into the Gulf of Maine. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ151-153. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ150-152-154. && $$ NEAR TERM...Legro