467 FXUS64 KSHV 061152 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 552 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .AVIATION... For the 06/12z TAFs, VFR ceilings will prevail initially but flight conditions will rapidly deteriorate into the MVFR/IFR at all terminals early in the period. In addition, scattered showers are expected across most of the area with the exception of portions of East Texas south of Interstate 20. KTXK and KELD will be the TAF sites most likely to experience precip as the highest rain chances will be across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest/Southern Arkansas. A cold front will also move across the area beginning around 06/20z. Gusty northwesterly winds can be expected following the frontal passage. Rain chances will end shortly after 07/00z as the front moves completes east of the TAF sites. Wind speeds should diminish and flight conditions should also improve back into the VFR in most locations during the latter half of the period. However, MVFR ceilings will likely persist at KELD and KMLU. CN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday/ An upper trough over the Southern Rockies will quickly move eastward across the region today. A surface low will also move eastward along the Interstate 20 corridor. As the upper trough moves into Southern Oklahoma this morning, scattered showers are expected to rapidly develop in a zone of isentropic ascent along and north of Interstate 30 and farther southeast in North Central Louisiana where a few showers have already been noted. Showers should quickly increase in coverage by the late morning and afternoon hours. Most of the area northeast of a line from Tyler to Hemphill have at least a chance of rain today. Rain is likely across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas where vertical ascent from the upper trough and surface low will be greatest. It will be quite a raw day in our northern zones with the rain and daytime highs remaining in the 40s. As colder air advects into Southeast Oklahoma as an associated cold front also moves through the area, a few flakes of snow cannot be completely ruled out in the higher elevations. However, accumulations are not expected. The rain will end early this evening as the surface low and upper trough axis continue to rapidly move eastward. Despite quite a bit of cloud cover during the overnight hours, strong cold air advection behind the departing cold front should bring below freezing temperatures to most locations along and north of I-30. Overnight lows in McCurtain County should fall into the mid to upper 20s. Skies will gradually clear from southwest to northeast during the day Sunday. The abundant sunshine should allow most locations to warm back to near normal levels. However, daytime highs will likely remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s across Southeast Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas as the clouds should persist until late afternoon. CN LONG TERM.../Sunday Night through Friday Night/ Let's begin by talking trends with the long-term forecast as there are some notable timing changes as it relates to the well-advertised Arctic blast of cold air expected later on next week. In short, the arrival time of the coldest air appears to be somewhat delayed by comparison with earlier forecast expectations. This will have major implications on the potential onset of wintry precipitation as we move into late next week. More on all that to come, but first let's discuss some more pleasant weather that will precede our impending Arctic outbreak. Beginning Sunday night, we'll see winds returning back southerly and allowing for a continued warming trend heading into early next week. Dry conditions will prevail on Monday as the upper level flow trends more zonal with high temperatures pushing into the 60s over much of the region and some areas near 70 degrees south of I-20. By Monday night into early Tuesday, we begin to see the first signs of major changes on the way. Looking south, a warm front along the Gulf coast will begin lifting back northward. Meanwhile, the leading edge of the robust Arctic air mass that has been much discussed is expected to slowly ease its way southward toward our region into Tuesday. Model discrepancies have begun to emerge, however, as it relates to the speed and extent of this cold air surge initially through the mid week timeframe. The cold front is expected to gradually spread on southward through the region on Tuesday through early Wednesday. The one model that is an outlier in further delaying fropa is the ECMWF, and I am largely discounting it for all intents and purposes as it also keeps temperatures much warmer even by late week when it finally does bring the front on through the area. So for now, will be keeping with the more consistent and similarly aligned GFS and Canadian solutions which have the brunt of the coldest air arriving on Friday and continuing through next weekend. Now onto the precipitation, expect rain to be the sole precipitation type at least through Wednesday night as temperatures will remain above freezing through this timeframe. By Thursday into Friday, we will see the forecast become more complicated as the colder air does finally begin surging farther south into the region, especially by Friday. The issue is that moisture will be quickly exiting the area by then as much colder and drier air spills south toward the coast. However, there could be a window of opportunity to see some wintry mixed precipitation Thursday through Thursday night over much of the region. However, much uncertainty remains as to the types/amounts of any wintry mix that could fall. For now at least, any major impacts from such an event appear to be minimized or at least delayed since trends continue to push the major cold air surge back to the end of next week. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 55 36 57 39 / 30 0 0 0 MLU 53 36 52 36 / 50 20 0 0 DEQ 46 28 49 33 / 90 0 0 0 TXK 50 32 51 37 / 70 0 0 0 ELD 52 33 50 33 / 70 10 0 0 TYR 59 33 59 42 / 10 0 0 0 GGG 57 33 57 39 / 30 0 0 0 LFK 63 35 61 40 / 10 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 09/19