676 FXUS65 KABQ 061148 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 448 AM MST Sat Feb 6 2021 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Northwest winds taper off through this morning with general breezy west and nw winds for many areas by afternoon. Winds ramp back up tonight as another wind maximum near mountain top level moves in. Strongest winds with gusts to 55-60 kts most likely from the Sangre de Cristo crest east to near I-25 tonight into Sunday morning. Elsewhere tonight, breezy to locally windy condtions will develop as a lee side surface trough/low strengthens over northeast NM. 33 && .PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MST Sat Feb 6 2021... .SYNOPSIS... Strong west to northwest winds will continue today and tonight in the high terrain of central NM and over the high plains of eastern NM. High temperatures will be about the same as yesterday. A strong warming trend will develop for the most of the region Sunday through Tuesday with highs reaching 5 to 15 degrees above normal. West and northwest winds will remain breezy through the entire period with very low humidity. Meanwhile, an arctic airmass will be draped over the TX panhandle by Monday night before inching westward each day into eastern NM through late next week. Some wintry precipitation is also possible over parts of the state by late next week. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... As one northwesterly wind maximum exits to the southeast by late this morning, another one is poised to move through central and northern NM tonight. Both the NAM and HiResW-ARW-West model show a westerly 700-mb speed max around 70-75kt moving through tonight. Winds remain breezy to locally windy through the day, especially along and east of the central mountain chain. Strong to potentially damaging winds are forecast for the Sangre de Cristo mountains tonight into Sunday morning. A high wind warning may be necessary as a result for the Sangre peaks eastward to the east slopes. Winds are forecast to diminish during the day Sunday as they become more westerly aloft but will likely remain stout through the day. High temperatures today will remain very near yesterday's highs, warming 5 to 15 degrees Sunday. LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... The weather story will remain focused on strong winds Monday as fast west-northwest flow continues over NM. More Wind Advisories may be needed along the east slopes as 700-500mb layer winds near 50 kt are still poised over the region. Max temps will be 10-15F above normal for parts of eastern NM with strong downslope flow and mostly sunny skies. An arctic airmass oozing down the Great Plains will be eyeing far northeast NM by Monday night. Changes begin Tuesday and Tuesday night as thick high clouds move over the state with a weak perturbation in quasi-zonal flow. Surface winds will remain elevated over much of central and western NM with above normal temps once again. The arctic airmass is progged to ooze slightly farther southwest into eastern NM so temps will trend much colder for at least areas along the TX border. Even more significant changes are on the horizon beginning Wednesday as a secondary surge of strong surface high pressure shifts down the Great Plains and a weak upper level wave approaches from the west. Confidence on the depth and timing of how the arctic airmass sloshes over the eastern half of NM is low at this time so expect big swings in forecast temps across the plains beginning Tuesday. NBM box-and- whisker plots show huge spreads between the 25th and 75th percentile on max temps for many areas along and east of the central mt chain. 33/Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry west to northwest flow aloft along with a dry airmass will lead to areas of near critical fire weather conditions mainly for the central highlands including Clines Corners, Vaughn, and Encino this afternoon. Localized critical conditions are expected for the same area Monday afternoon as winds and the dry airmass continue. Relative humidity values trend upward and winds trend down somewhat Tuesday through the remainder of the work week. Shallow cold air is forecast to flirt with the eastern plains Tuesday and each night and morning through the week. Snow chances will most likely return to the northern and western mountains Tuesday and continue through Thursday or so. 33 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Hit-and-miss northwesterly winds associated with jet max moving over northern and central NM has brought gust winds to a few terminals. KLVS and KLAM have seen gusts between 35-45kts. These winds will continue to reach a few favored terminals immediately lee of the central mountain chain overnight. There is less confidence for these peak gusts to reach KABQ-KAEG-KSAF and are covered with tempo groups between 06Z and 09Z. Accompanying this shortwave trough will be sporadic light snow over the northern mountains, but only a light dusting is expected near spots like KLAM or KAXX. Winds overall taper off through Saturday morning with general breezy westerlies for many areas Saturday afternoon. 24 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 7 AM MST this morning for the following zones... NMZ214-215-221-223. && $$