418 FXUS64 KSJT 061011 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 411 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 An upper level shortwave will move from northeastern NM tonight through Oklahoma today, sending a Pacific cold front through the area. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to develop across the area today behind the front. And although we will technically have a cold front moving through the area, temperatures will actually be somewhat similar to Friday due to warming from downsloping of dry air, and we will also be dealing with gusty north/northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph. Overnight, we can expect winds to diminish quickly after sunset, with skies remaining clear. This will lead to fairly cool overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s with good radiational cooling conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 357 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 Expect warm and dry weather Monday. Highs will be mainly in the 70s. The medium range models are in good agreement of an arctic airmass surging south across all of West Central Texas by late next week. The initial cold front will move into the Big Country Tuesday morning and then stalling out along a Mertzon to San Angelo to Brady through by Wednesday. There will be a wide range of temperatures for highs, ranging from the upper 30s and 40s across the Big Country to 65-75 along the I-10 corridor. A second surge of much colder air will invade West Central Texas Thursday through next weekend. For Thursday and Friday, temperatures will be much below normal, with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s by Friday morning. Also, the combination of weak upper level disturbances and moisture overrunning of the arctic airmass may result in light wintry precipitation over mainly the Big Country on Thursday. However, expect minimal impacts at this time. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1031 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 MVFR stratus deck making some inroads into the Hill Country late this evening, and may make it into southeast terminals of KJCT and KBBD before sunrise. Will be brief, with gusty southwest winds eroding the cloud cover quickly by mid morning. Otherwise, gusty winds will be the main story. Gusty south winds to start the morning off will shift to the southwest and then eventually to the northwest as a cold front pushes across the area. Wind gusts near 30kts possible Saturday afternoon across the KSJT and KABi locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 62 34 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 68 33 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 70 30 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 65 30 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 62 37 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 68 33 68 44 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...07