555 FXUS63 KSGF 060935 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 335 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 A relatively strong shortwave trough will dig into the Middle Mississippi Valley this afternoon into the evening. Meanwhile, at the surface a strong cold front will allow cold air to filter into the region as it progresses through the region today. Expect precipitation to accompany this system as strong frontogenesis aids forcing ahead and along the frontal boundary. Expect rain at the onset late this morning into the early afternoon along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Rain will then quickly change over to a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow by this afternoon as cold air filters in from the northwest to southeast. Meanwhile, areas south of the Highway 60 corridor will see more rain before transitioning to a rain/snow mix late this afternoon. Accumulating snowfall is forecast occur in areas along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Snowfall accumulation efficiency will have a few factors working against it including: daytime snowfall, ground temperatures initially above freezing, and air temperatures initially above/near freezing. However, many of these factors working against accumulating snowfall will be overcome as strong cold air advects into the region late this afternoon into the early evening. With that being said, accumulating snowfall is forecast for portions of the region along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and north of the Highway 54 corridor. As you head south towards the Highway 60 corridor, snowfall amounts will generally be around 1 to 2 inches. An additional concern will be the flash freezing potential to occur on wet roadways as temperatures quickly fall in the lower 20s as the front pushes through and the sun sets. This will need to be watched closely this afternoon. Confidence is increasing in minor road impacts occurring, especially in the areas that see a quick transition to all snow as cold air filters in. As a result, the Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded south towards the spine of Ozarks plateau. The advisory goes into effect later this morning through the late evening. The advisory includes counties along and north of a line from Fort Scott to Springfield to Houston. Expect the snow to taper off behind the frontal passage late this evening leaving behind a cold night. Overnight lows will range from single digits across central Missouri to middle to upper teens along the Missouri/Arkansas border. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 335 AM CST Sat Feb 6 2021 By Sunday, temperatures will slowly rebound with highs in the middle 20s across central Missouri to upper 30s across far southwest Missouri. A weak shortwave may bring the potential for light snow or flurries late Sunday night into Monday, but no impacts are expected at this time. Additional chances for precipitation will occur through the day on Monday into Tuesday as another frontal passage makes its way through the region. However, the system is fairly limited in moisture. As we head into Tuesday, a strong Arctic airmass begins to make its presence felt across the central CONUS. Models are in good agreement that this Arctic blast may last well into mid-February. This airmass will be responsible for overnight low temperatures in the single digits to near zero degrees by mid to late week. Additionally, sub-zero wind chills can be expected. Daily highs will struggle to reach anywhere near freezing from Tuesday through next weekend. Additionally, low chances will exist for light snow through the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night) Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 VFR flight conditions will persist throughout the night. Winds will come around to a more southeasterly directions towards morning. Rain and snow will break out across southern Missouri between 12Z-18z with ceilings dropping into the MVFR category. The wintry mix will change to snow between 18Z-00Z with ceilings dropping into the IFR category. Conditions will improve after 00Z, with northwest winds picking up behind the cold front. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for MOZ055>058-067>069. KS...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Perez LONG TERM...Perez AVIATION...Raberding