196 FXUS62 KMHX 060611 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 111 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cold front will stall off the Southeast coast Saturday. Another coastal low will move along our Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure briefly builds into the area Monday with unsettled weather possible across the area for the middle to latter half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1 AM Saturday...Infrared satellite indicates widespread mid and high level clouds across the region in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures should start a more steady drop in the next couple of hours as somewhat lower dewpoints start to spread eastward toward the coast. Overall, no major adjustments needed to the current forecast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... As of of 950 Friday...Lowered high temps a few degrees across the southern tier given expected aftn cloud cover. Otherwise, no changes to the prev disc. Surface high pressure will be centered over the area tomorrow morning, while the cold front will be stalled well south of the area. Expect, sunny skies in the morning with in an increase of clouds by the afternoon as the high slides and a robust shortwave trough pushes into the lower Miss River Valley with low pressure developing across the northern Gulf of Mexico. The Hi-Res models continue to agree with light rain showers to develop across the southern counties during the mid to late afternoon, but it may take some time for the column to moisten as drier air may continue to linger across the area. Expect highs in upper 40s to low 50s across the area. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 315 AM Friday...Broad cyclonic flow prevails across much of the CONUS keeping an active pattern across the region through the long term. Saturday night through Sunday...The shortwave pushes across the Southeast Saturday night with the surface low quickly lifting along the offshore frontal boundary to just off Cape Hatteras by 12z Sunday. Precip chances increase through the evening with favorable upper level jet dynamics and strong isentropic lift maximized after midnight. There is a slight chance for p-type issues across the northwest sections at the onset of precip in the evening into the early morning hours Sunday but by the time the lower levels become saturated a pronounced warm nose will be developing aloft bringing an end to the threat of winter wx. Confidence is not high enough to include any winter precip in the forecast at this time but if it does occur, impacts are expected to be very limited. The low will quickly pull away from the area with most guidance pushing the rain offshore by the afternoon but lingering moisture may keep skies mainly cloudy through the afternoon. Guidance has increased rainfall amounts with this system with around 0.75-1.00 inches possible. Monday through Thursday...Drier air and subsidence develop Monday as high pressure builds in from the north, however the high quickly pushes offshore Monday night with southerly return flow developing Tuesday bringing a nice but brief warm up with temps expected in the 60s. A progressive pattern will prevail mid to late with with near zonal flow aloft however guidance has diverged a bit with timing and track of a series of systems that will track across the Southeast leading to below normal confidence in the forecast next week. For example, the operational 00z/05 ECMWF brings a rather robust system across the area Tuesday with a cold front pushing well south of the area Tuesday night with high pressure building into the area Wednesday and Thursday while the GFS/CMC is weaker with the first system and the front stalling closer to the coast with a series of weak systems pushing across the area Wednesday and Thursday. Will follow closely to NBM/WPC guidance keeping slight chance to chance PoPs through the latter half of the extended period. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Short Term /through 06Z Sunday/... As of 105 AM Saturday...Widespread mid clouds will dominate the area skies through much of the day as weak high pressure builds across eastern NC. Deeper moisture starts to move back in later in the afternoon and early evening as front lifts back north. Ceiling drop to MVFR with some light rain by around 00z, then drop further to IFR after midnight as rain becomes steady into early Sunday morning. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 430 AM Thursday...High pressure briefly builds into the area Saturday with VFR conditions expected but another system is expected to impact the area Saturday night into Sunday with another round of sub-VFR conditions possible. High pressure builds into the are Monday with VFR conditions expected. Rain chances increase Tuesday and could see periods of sub-VFR conditions possible. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Saturday/... As of 110 AM Saturday...Latest trend show winds/seas dropping quickly and SCA conditions are quite marginal now. Will likely drop the remaining SCA on the next update. Expect northerly winds 5-10 kts tomorrow morning, becoming ENE 10-15 kts by the afternoon. Seas will become 3-5 ft by tomorrow mid-morning and continue to subside to 3-4 ft by early evening. Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/... As of 5 AM Friday...High pressure across the area Saturday will slide offshore Saturday night with area of low pressure lifting along the coast after midnight. Lingering SCA across the central waters Saturday morning should quickly end with seas dropping below 6 ft. Winds increase Saturday night and Sunday as an area of low pressure lifts across the offshore waters and could see a period of SCA conditions across the waters. The low lifts away from the area late Sunday with high pressure building in Monday bringing better boating conditions. Another system is expected to impact the area Tuesday or Tuesday night but guidance is not in best agreement with the strength. Stronger guidance suggest a period of SCA conditions may return on Tuesday. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ156- 158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...CTC SHORT TERM...BM LONG TERM...SK AVIATION...CTC/SK/ML MARINE...CTC/SK/BM