690 FXUS61 KBTV 060546 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1246 AM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Scattered to numerous snow showers are expected tonight into Saturday, most prevalent to the lee of Lake Ontario where localized significant accumulations are expected. An active weather pattern continues across the area for next week with additional systems bringing periods of light snows on Sunday evening, Tuesday, and again by next Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1232 AM EST Saturday...Lake effect snow is struggling to nose into our forecast area this evening possibly due to a lack of instability as we wait for cooler temperatures aloft, but the forecast is on track. We also continue to see snow showers across much of the North Country outside of the lake effect, and despite only semi-blocked flow, some of it is backing backing westward into the lower Champlain Valley in Vermont rather than making eastward progress. Tweaked PoPs some, but the forecast remains in good shape. Have a great night! Previous discussion follows. Have added southeastern St Lawrence County to the Winter storm warning for lake effect snow based on expected snow totals from tonight through tomorrow. Are of rain and snow showers is currently pushing across the Adirondacks and Northern Champlain valley. Thus far, the precipitation has been very light. Not seeing much of a change in temperatures behind this boundary. Previous discussion follows. Occluded boundary which produced a 1-3 hour window of light to briefly moderate snows to our area earlier today has exited northeast as of mid-afternoon. Persistent southwesterly flow aloft has set up in the wake of this boundary and will persist through Saturday evening under variable cloud cover. This will foster an enhanced response off Lake Ontario with scattered to numerous snow showers expected, most numerous across the western Dacks/southern SLV where Lake Effect Snow Warnings remain in place this evening into Saturday evening. Locally significant accumulations still look reasonable in these areas. Elsewhere, just some passing snow showers/flurries expected overnight into Saturday, though some local enhancement of the Lake Ontario snow band will be possible across the higher elevations of the northern Greens on Saturday. By Saturday night the synoptic scale flow backs to southerly in advance of our next system with lake snows ending. Temperatures remain seasonable through the period. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 315 PM EST Friday...New data suggests some phasing between northern and southern streams on Sunday, which would support a little better chance for light snow across much of the area. Have therefore increased precipitation chances to likely on Sunday with activity become more terrain driven Sunday night. At this time looking at 1 to 2 inches of snow with slightly higher amounts in the northern Green Mountains. Highs on Sunday will be in the 20s to around 30 and lows Sunday night in the single digits and teens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 315 PM EST Friday...Active weather in the extended period, Monday through Friday, mainly from the frequency of systems to affect the area. Nothing looking significant just yet, but looking like at least three system to bring weather to the area. First one is late Monday night and especially on Tuesday as shortwave trough moves across the area and brings more light snow to the area. Should see some minor accumulations with this event. Wednesday and Thursday should be dry, but then a larger upper trough will try to get established over the eastern United States in the Friday/Saturday time period. This would suggest a better chance for a more organized surface low, but data is a bit all over the place with the low. Nevertheless enough forcing would exist for precipitation and will start to raise precipitation chances up into the chance category for Friday. Temperatures in the extended will be at or below seasonal normals. The first sign of unseasonably cold air would come next weekend, but is dependent on how organized and amplified the upper trough is to bring down the very cold air aloft. Something to keep an eye on. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Through 06Z Sunday...Mostly VFR with pockets of some lower flight rules in snow showers at KRUT and KMPV. Activity should wane and transition to lake effect snow across northern New York. At this time, it does not appear to impact any terminals, but mentioned VCSH at KSLK for much of the next 24 hours as well as many others around 18Z-00Z. Any snow showers would produce locally MVFR to IFR visibilities. Prevailing conditions should be VFR, with ceilings around 3500-5000ft agl. After 14Z, anticipate increasing south to southwest winds up to 8 to 13 knots with gusts 18 to 24 knots at times. Winds subside to around 5 knots around 03Z, with lake effect diminishing. Outlook... Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMG NEAR TERM...Haynes/JMG/Neiles SHORT TERM...Evenson LONG TERM...Evenson AVIATION...Clay/Haynes