926 FXUS63 KABR 060534 AAB AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 1134 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Added a mention of snow showers/flurries to northeast SD and west central MN this evening. As the arctic high pushes south, a weak arctic front has developed on the nose of the cold air push. This feature is squeezing out some moisture and producing a slightly more intense area of snow showers around Watertown. The intensity will be short-lived as it quickly moves southeast, leaving only some flurries in its wake. && .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Night) Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Forecast challenges revolve around wind chills and snow chances each of the next couple of nights. Currently, temperatures are running generally between 10F above zero and 20F above zero under a mix of sun and clouds. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph have been the norm today, as well. Nearly the entire North American continent is under the influence of a deep/anomalously cold and broad upper level trof, including northwest flow aloft over this CWA. This pattern will remain unchanged through Saturday night. Very cold air in place will combine with 10 to 15 mph winds to produce wind chill values down to -25F to -30F later tonight and again later Saturday night. The wind chill advisory continues. The broad cyclonic nature of the upper flow pattern and the nearby mid-level baroclinic zone (south and west in the region) the polar front has created will work in precipitation's favor each time a transient mid-level shortwave works southeastward through the region to generate some light snow potential as far east as the Missouri River valley (but mainly west river) later tonight/early Saturday morning and then again later Saturday night. Minimal snow accumulation potential over the far west/southwest portion of this cwa. As was mentioned before, an airmass of arctic origins has moved into the northern plains and taken up residence over this CWA. Temperature guidance has low and high temperatures tonight, Saturday and Saturday night appx 1.5 to 2 standard deviations (NAEFS and ENS SA Table 850hpa standardized anomalies charts) below climo normal. The only thing that might hamper the going temperature forecast is the clouds (and/or snow chances). There are supposed to be multiple rounds of cloudiness over the next 48 hours. This could keep overnight lows (and forecast wind chills) tonight and Saturday night a bit warmer than forecast. Something for future shifts to contemplate. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 313 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Cold. Not sure what else I can say. 850mb temperatures will remain below a standard deviation below climo through next week, though at least there is some diurnal variability thanks to a lack of snow cover, but that only yields temperatures above the zero mark for a few hours each afternoon. Cant rule out some moisture starved light snow for central South Dakota Sunday with a weak shortwave rounding the upper trough positioned across North America, but the bulk of the forcing is to the west. There may be other opportunities for light amounts of moisture given the environment, but subtle features have too low a predictability at these timescales and impacts will be minimal. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night) Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions and breezy northwest winds are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours. Can't completely rule out a flurry or two that could drop vsby briefly to MVFR, but this scenario is too uncertain for a taf mention. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Chill Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for SDZ003>011-015>023. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ039-046. && $$ UPDATE...Wise SHORT TERM...Dorn LONG TERM...Connelly AVIATION...Wise