136 FXUS64 KSHV 060451 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1051 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021 .AVIATION... VFR conditions to prevail through the overnight hours this TAF cycle. However, low cigs to begin developing just after sunrise, spreading from s to n across the terminals. Sct shwrs will develop late morning and continue through 00Z, diminishing through the end of the pd. Some reduced vsbys with shwrs cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, expect light winds overnight to become sely at 5-10 kts after sunrise. Winds will become wly to nwly spreading from w to e across the region late in the pd. /12/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1001 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021/ UPDATE.../Tonight/ Weak impulse in the base of the longwave upper trof continues to pass across our srn areas, keeping some light shwrs ongoing well s of our area. Latest model output indicates that some shwrs could redevelop further n into our srn areas, so have opted to keep the ongoing PoPs in place. A look at observed temp trends shows that we are well on track to reach our previously fcst min temps, so will allow fcst to remain as is. All other elements look to be in good shape, so all in all, no changes expected attm. /12/ && PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 254 PM CST Fri Feb 5 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday Night/ Improving conditions expected tonight as low-level disturbance exits the region to the east. Clouds to gradually improve throughout the evening with overnight low temperatures forecast to fall into the mid to upper 30s. Low-level southerly flow to return to the region on Saturday as the surface high shifts east. This, combined with a broad surface low approaching from the southwest will support scattered showers across the region on Saturday, mainly across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, and north-central Louisiana. Afternoon high temperatures to range from the lower 50s across the I-30 corridor to the lower 60s across east Texas. Conditions to improve on Saturday night as upper-level flow becomes west-northwest and surface ridging builds areawide. Overnight lows on Saturday night to range from the upper 20s across southeast Oklahoma to the upper 30s south of I-20. /05/ LONG TERM.../Sunday through Thursday Night/ Big pattern change ahead with much colder weather expected later next week... The GFS/ECMWF/Canadian are in agreement that the period will begin with the region in a dry west-northwesterly mid-level flow on Sunday that will become more zonal by Sunday night. The mid-level flow will begin to shift to more southwesterly on Monday. At the surface, a weak area of high pressure will be over the area on Sunday and shift well east of the area on Monday as a surface low develops over North Texas. On Monday night into Tuesday, some uncertainty enters the forecast as models weaken the surface low with varying solutions on resolving an inverted surface trough crossing the area Monday night into Tuesday night. The trough will bring enhanced lift with a low-level southerly flow in place increasing moisture in front of a frontal boundary that will precede a much stronger arctic cold front approaching from the northwest on Tuesday. With the uncertainty in mind with the initial boundary and surface trough, went with the National Blend of Models (NBM) solution with a chance of showers across the area on Tuesday ahead of the front. Much more uncertainty enters the forecast on Tuesday night into Thursday night regarding chances of precipitation and precipitation type. However, there is gaining confidence that we will see a big pattern change with an anomalously cold air mass that will filter into the area and be reinforced by a strong cold front Thursday into Thursday night. The GFS indicates initially light amounts of precip with a mix of rain and snow possible on the back end of an initial cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. It then indicates a mid-level southern stream wave pushing across the area Thursday into Thursday night that would bring a wintry mix to the area. The Canadian/ECMWF solution are in more agreement with a mostly dry Tuesday night into Wednesday with a wintry mix possible along of south of the I-20 corridor Thursday into Thursday night. Regardless of the timing of a potential wintry mix event, there is at least at this point some potential for a high impact wintry mix event given subfreezing temperatures reinforced by an Arctic high over the central and northern Plains and anticipated Arctic front clearing well southeast of the area by Thursday. Given the potential of a warm air mass overrunning this cold air reinforced into the area by the high, this will be a time period that will need to be watched closely next week. There is the potential of a wintry mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain that could bring impacts to the area. For temperatures, highs on Sunday look to be near normal values with highs ranging from the lower 50s in SE Oklahoma/SW Arkansas to the lower 60s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana. Temperatures will warm slightly Monday into Tuesday with highs around 5 degrees above normal. The cooling trend will then commence as Arctic air begins to filter into the region. Highs on Wednesday look to be 10 degrees below normal and by Thursday 15-20 degrees below normal. Lows on Wednesday night looks to be near or below freezing across the area and Thursday night even colder, ranging from the upper teens north of the I-30 corridor to the upper 20s in Deep East Texas and central Louisiana. Some model ensemble members are hinting at even colder temperatures Thursday night with lows in the teens possible. With the possibility of a wave of southern stream moisture crossing the area, a wintry mix event could become problematic for the region with accumulations of snow, sleet, and ice (from freezing rain) possible. /04-Woodrum/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 38 55 37 58 / 0 20 0 0 MLU 37 53 37 53 / 10 40 10 0 DEQ 35 50 30 51 / 0 60 0 0 TXK 38 52 32 52 / 0 50 0 0 ELD 35 52 32 52 / 10 50 10 0 TYR 40 58 35 60 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 38 56 34 58 / 0 20 0 0 LFK 41 62 36 63 / 10 10 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ 12/05/04