678 FXUS61 KPBZ 060132 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 832 PM EST Fri Feb 5 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure in the Great Lakes will provide light snow shower chances tonight. Saturday will be sunny with high pressure. Another round of mostly light snow may be possible later Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Current low level lapse rates are 5.5 to 6 C/KM throughout the area due to cold advection, aiding current shortwave passage, broad jet support and vorticity advection in producing light snow showers. Moisture is limited to a saturated DGZ within the boundary layer, so snow growth will continue to be supported but overall accumulations will be near to or less than an inch in most locations, up to 2 inches is possible in Preston and Tucker Counties of WV. Low temperatures will be near calculated normals south, but will fall to the low teens north. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... By 12Z, the shortwave will largely have departed, with perhaps a bit of light snow lingering across the southeastern ridges. Otherwise, Saturday will be dry and chilly, with a good deal of sunshine in many cases, as weak high pressure crosses. The models are trending a bit deeper with a shortwave crossing the Tennessee Valley, as well as providing a coastal low track closer to the Atlantic Seaboard. This raises the snow potential slightly for our region, and have upped PoPs as a result. However, snow totals will be held in check by the speed of the system, as well as the fact that the northern and southern streams will be unable to phase. An inch or two of accumulation looks possible along the Laurels/West Virginia ridges, but it still appears that headlines may not be necessary with this system. Snow will end by Sunday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through, with temperatures possibly falling during the afternoon. Sunday night will be a cold one as high pressure settles in again. Single-digit lows are possible in some areas, particularly if the sky can clear. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Elongated troughing will persist into at least Wednesday, with shortwaves in the flow producing a couple chances for snow. The period from Monday night through Tuesday will need to be watched, as it has the best potential for producing a widespread light accumulation. Model details with this system remain muddled at this distance, though. Temperatures will be a bit below normal, but not to the level as depicted in model runs earlier this week. After Wednesday, drier weather takes hold, but with a reinforced trough digging into the Ohio Valley by the end of the week, temperatures will dip further below normal, with single-digit lows returning by the end of the forecast period. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Low end VFR to MVFR stratocu is expected through the first half of the TAF period in cigs under cold advection and broad upper troughing, with passing shortwave troughs supporting -shsn through this eve. Genly VFR is expected Saturday with weak sfc ridging and dry advctn. Steep llvl lapse rates and a large pressure gradient should continue to promote gusty wind which should ease overnight. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible Sat night/Sun, and again Tue, with crossing low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$