016 FXUS66 KOTX 022236 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 236 PM PST Tue Feb 2 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers will linger over the region this evening especially over the south Idaho Panhandle mountains with accumulating snow above 3500 feet. The Cascades and the mountains of the Idaho Panhandle will receive more snow late Thursday into Friday. The weekend looks seasonably cool and mainly dry. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday morning: A band of precipitation associated with a cold front will continue through early this evening over the Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and Central Panhandle Mountains with snow above 3500 feet. A winter weather advisory remains in place for Lookout Pass. Amounts may also near advisory levels for the Camas Prairie south of Lewiston but with models showing a short window for accumulations (2-7 pm) before the band of precipitation pushes east amounts are borderline and opted to not issue for the time being with 2-3" expected around Winchester and Craigmont. Behind the front the atmosphere had destabilized over Central and NE Washington with 500mb temps down to near -35C. Surface based CAPE around 100-300 J/KG has been enough to generate some convection with reports of rain and hail. Also had a lightning strike earlier west of Coulee City. This activity is expected to decrease after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight into Wednesday an upper low digs south of the area into Oregon sending the bulk of the showers to our south. Still enough residual moisture and weak upslope flow that may produce some snow showers mainly in the Central Panhandle Mountains, Blue Mountains, and Camas Prairie. This wave exits for mainly dry weather Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon into Thursday night: ...Travel impacts possible over the Cascade Passes, Idaho Panhandle, and Camas Prairie... A stronger wave drops down in northwest flow with isentropic ascent, and upslope flow enhancing lift over the Cascades, Idaho Panhandle, and possibly the Camas Prairie. Early indications of 6 to 10 inches of snow possible for Stevens and Lookout Passes with 2 to 4 inches in the Silver Valley. Strong mid level westerly flow should create a precipitation shadow over the majority of Central and Eastern Washington with little to no accumulations expected for Central Washington with light accumulations possible for Eastern Washington. JW Friday through Monday: The remaining precipitation in the Idaho Panhandle and Cascades will be out of the region by mid-day Friday. It will be the last, above average day for the time being. Conditions will be dry with highs reaching the 40s for most of the region. Winds will pick up Friday afternoon with peak gusts up to 20- 30mph in the Blues, Basin, Palouse, and Cascades. The models are continuing to show that the short wave ridge off the coast continues to prevent any impact from the arctic air mass this weekend. The significant drop in temperatures and winds will primarily remain on the eastern side of the continental divide. The temperatures in the Inland Northwest are still expected to cool, but to near seasonal..highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. There is little agreement between models when our next round of precipitation will arrive. The European is indicating that there will be rounds of regionwide light snow/rain showers late Saturday into early Monday. However, models, such as the Canadian and GFS, are keeping any precipitation to the Cascade Crest and ID Panhandle, if we get any. Currently, low confidence when we will see the next round of active weather following late Thursday's rain and snow. JS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Bands of rain will accompany a cold front today. The most prolonged precipitation will occur over the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington including Coeur d'Alene, Sandpoint, Kellogg, and Pullman. Ceilings of 2000 feet or less will be possible through the afternoon until the front migrates east. Localized gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible with some of the stronger showers embedded within the rain band this morning. Post cold front gusts of 30 mph or more will also be possible at Moses Lake, Ephrata, and Spokane International late this morning into the afternoon. JW && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 29 40 27 38 31 43 / 10 10 0 30 30 10 Coeur d'Alene 29 39 27 37 31 41 / 20 20 0 40 60 20 Pullman 31 40 30 38 34 42 / 10 20 10 20 40 30 Lewiston 34 46 33 45 39 50 / 30 20 10 10 50 30 Colville 25 38 23 36 25 40 / 30 10 0 30 40 10 Sandpoint 29 37 27 34 31 39 / 40 30 10 50 80 20 Kellogg 28 36 26 35 32 39 / 50 40 20 60 90 40 Moses Lake 31 46 30 46 31 50 / 10 10 0 10 10 0 Wenatchee 29 42 31 43 33 47 / 20 20 0 10 10 10 Omak 28 40 27 40 29 42 / 20 10 0 10 20 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains. WA...None. && $$