432 FXUS62 KFFC 012001 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 301 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 .SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/... Satellite imagery shows the upper-level trough continuing to dig southward along the leeward side of the southern Blue Ridge mountains, currently centered in South Carolina. On the backside of the trough, strong, dry northwest flow will persist through the short term forecast period. At the surface, strong gradient winds behind a cold frontal passage this morning will persist with scattered sustained winds up to 20 mph and occasional gusts up to 35mph. These strong winds have prompted a Wind Advisory for the area through tomorrow afternoon. Also, within the north-northwest flow, just enough low-level moisture exists to squeeze out some light snow showers in the north central and northeastern parts of the state, primarily due to orographic lifting. Given the aspect of the flow overriding the mountains the largest threat for some elevated snow totals continues to be within the Cohutta Wilderness where and addition 1-1.5" are forecast on top of approximately 1-2" which may have already fallen. These values combined exceed our local Winter Storm Warning threshold, which has been issued for portions of North Central Georgia through tomorrow morning. However, the Winter Storm thresholds exist only for the sparsely populated area in and around the Cohutta Wilderness primarily located in western Fannin county. Elsewhere in the higher elevations, snow accumulations could reach a half inch above 2000 ft, and a quarter to a half inch below 2000ft, mostly north of the Appalachian Trail. Snow totals may cause some very minor impacts, but with elevated wind speeds, we're not expecting many travel restrictions to major roads but some slick spots may exist on elevated surfaces. With the combination of colder temperatures and strong winds, wind c hills will also be fairly low tonight, with values dropping into the teens for most of the forecast area, with low temperatures mostly in the upper 20s. In the higher elevations, however, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler with wind speeds about 5-10 mph stronger above 2000 feet in elevation. In these areas wind chills will drop to the low single digits. The combination of wind chills and light snow accumulations have prompted the issuance of a Winter Weather Advisory for other portions of northeast Georgia through tomorrow morning. Highs tomorrow are expected to rebound into the 40s in the afternoon as skies clear through the day but breezy conditions will continue into the evening keeping wind chills in the mid 30s to low 40s. Thiem .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/... Cool and dry conditions will be in place across north and central Georgia as the extended period begins on Wednesday. A pronounced upper level ridge will be sliding over the eastern CONUS as a strong surface high builds in over the region. With strong northwesterly flow on the eastern flank of the ridge, temperatures at the start of the period will be cooler than average. Afternoon highs on Wednesday are expected to range from 4-8 degrees below climatological normals, in the 40s to mid 50s areawide. Overnight lows will then be in the mid 20s to low 30s across the forecast area. Afterwards, temperatures will increase through the end of the week as the axis of the ridge and the high move east of the forecast area, setting up southerly flow and a gradual moisture return as the next system approaches the area. An open wave trough and associated low pressure system are expected to swing through the Great Lakes region by late Thursday, and a cold front extending from this low will approach northwestern Georgia by Thursday night. Model guidance is coming into better agreement with respect to the timing at which precipitation ahead of the front enters the forecast area, so PoPs for the overnight hours Thursday into Friday morning have been increased to likely across the northern tier and chance elsewhere across the forecast area. It is likely to see this front stall across central/south Georgia on Friday and into Saturday as the parent low moves off to the northeast, but uncertainty remains as to where exactly this boundary will stall. The latest GFS solution indicates the front will clear the forecast area and stall over the Florida Panhandle/south Georgia while the latest ECMWF stalls the front across central Georgia. Better moisture and higher precipitation chances will be focused along this boundary, so considering the uncertainty, have maintained chance PoPs for Friday and Saturday for now. With very limited instability progged, no thunder is forecast at this time. Another longwave trough is expected to move through the Great Lakes region during the weekend, with a developing surface low to its southeast leading to the potential for another shot of precipitation across north and central Georgia. Model guidance remains inconsistent at this time regarding the timing and evolution of this system, so have opted not to increase PoPs until better agreement and run-to-run consistency is seen. However, near to below freezing temperatures across north and west Georgia support the possibility for a wintry mix and a transition to snow showers across portions of far north Georgia on Saturday night and into Sunday morning where precipitation occurs. A cold airmass building in behind the system will allow for a return to below average temperatures on Sunday through the end of the period. King && .AVIATION... 18Z Update... Strong winds out of the NNW will continue through the TAF period around 15-20kts and gusts up to 25-35kts at times. MVFR expected to remain over ATL sites with some spotty clearing to the south and east at other TAF locations from now through early tomorrow morning. For ATL sites, model guidance has best time of clearing to VFR from 08-14Z, but it may occur sooner, with patchy MVFR until then. Otherwise, dry conditions expected with occasional snow flurries possible at northern sites. //ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Low on potential snow flurries at northern sites. Medium on timing of CIG improvement. High on all other elements. Thiem && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 30 46 27 53 / 10 0 0 0 Atlanta 29 43 26 48 / 10 0 0 0 Blairsville 24 35 21 43 / 30 5 0 0 Cartersville 28 43 24 48 / 10 0 0 0 Columbus 31 49 28 55 / 5 0 0 0 Gainesville 29 42 26 50 / 10 5 0 0 Macon 31 49 27 56 / 5 0 0 0 Rome 29 44 25 50 / 10 0 0 0 Peachtree City 29 45 25 51 / 5 0 0 0 Vidalia 33 49 30 54 / 5 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Tuesday for the following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts... Carroll...Catoosa...Chattahoochee...Chattooga...Cherokee... Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dade... Dawson...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fannin... Fayette...Floyd...Forsyth...Gilmer...Glascock...Gordon... Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard... Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson... Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Lumpkin...Macon...Madison...Marion... Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Murray...Muscogee... Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach... Pickens...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...Putnam...Rockdale...Schley... South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot... Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Towns...Treutlen... Troup...Twiggs...Union...Upson...Walker...Walton...Warren... Washington...Webster...Wheeler...White...Whitfield...Wilcox... Wilkes...Wilkinson. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for the following zones: Dawson...Lumpkin...Towns...Union...White. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for the following zones: Fannin...Gilmer...Murray. && $$ SHORT TERM...Thiem LONG TERM....King AVIATION...Thiem