884 FXUS62 KTAE 011808 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 108 PM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 18z Tuesday] Ceilings hovering near MVFR are expected to continue into the overnight hours with post-frontal low cloud cover. A return to VFR conditions is expected late tonight into Tuesday. Northwest winds are expected to remain gusty through the period. && .PREV DISCUSSION [1008 AM EST]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Showers and thunderstorms have moved out of the forecast area. The cold front is almost completely through the region. POPs will be near zero today and tonight. Northwesterly winds are increasing. Strong winds will continue today with gusts around 30 mph at times and will begin to decrease tonight. Today will be cloudy as wrap around moisture lingers behind the low. Clouds will clear out late tonight as high pressure moves into the region. With cloud cover and strong winds, today will be very chilly with highs in the 40s and wind chills about 10 degrees colder at times. Tonight will be cold with lows in the lower to mid 30s. Wind chills Tuesday morning will be in the 20s. .SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]... Strong northwest flow will be in place through the short term, while high pressure dominates at the surface, allowing for dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. The main focus then in the short term will be the temperatures. Highs will be in the low 50s Tuesday and the mid to upper 50s Wednesday, well below normal. The strong pressure gradient in place across the region will allow gusty winds to persist into Tuesday and thus the high temperatures on Tuesday could feel as low as the mid 40s across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. Lows Tuesday night will be around freezing with a wind chill in the 20s. .LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The strong northwest flow in place during the short term will become more zonal Wednesday night into Thursday as the upper level trough moves east and the next system moves across the central CONUS. Rain will return to the forecast Thursday night into Friday and begin to clear out Saturday night as the next front moves through. Instability is limited with the system at this time so mainly showers in the forecast, except for Saturday afternoon when a slight chance of thunderstorms was mentioned given the slightly elevated CAPE values. .MARINE... A cold front moving through the marine area this morning has brought Small Craft Advisory conditions to the waters. Gusts to just below gale force will be possible today. Winds and seas will remain elevated through Tuesday night and it's borderline that the Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended for the offshore waters into Tuesday night. While a brief period of lower winds and seas is expected mid-week, conditions will ramp up again by the end of the week as the next weather system approaches. .FIRE WEATHER... A dry air mass will be in place by tomorrow. Dispersions will be high, above 75 this afternoon. The next chance for rain will be Friday and Saturday. Red Flag conditions are not expected. .HYDROLOGY... The Ochlockonee River near Concord continues to hover around flood stage this morning, however is expected to fall below flood stage during the day today. Rainfall estimates show around a quarter to half on inch of rain fell with this recent event, along with isolated areas around one inch. Conditions will remain dry the next few days with rain returning Friday into Saturday as the next system moves through. At this point, those rainfall amounts appear to be light. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur (while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines) by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 34 53 32 57 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 35 54 35 58 42 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 31 51 29 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 32 51 29 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 33 51 30 55 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 34 53 32 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 35 54 35 57 41 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ Wednesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...McD SHORT TERM...Fieux LONG TERM...Fieux AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Fieux FIRE WEATHER...McD HYDROLOGY...Fieux