740 FXUS63 KAPX 010843 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 343 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 ...Dry and quiet thru tonight... High Impact Weather Potential...None. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Low pressure center has reached the Appalachians and is in the process of transferring energy to the East Coast in the form of a developing Nor'easter. Strong high pressure remains centered over James Bay and Western Quebec. Michigan remains between these two systems...resulting in dry northeasterly flow and thus no precip. Some lake SC is streaming into parts of NE Lower Michigan under the direction of that NE low level flow. Cloud cover across the rest of our CWA consists mainly of dense cirrus on the back side of the departing low pressure system. As we head into today and tonight...dry N/NE low level flow combined with building subsidence will preclude any precip development thru tonight. Some lake cloudiness will continue to stream into NE Lower Michigan...and some dense cirrus will also continue to drift over our area thru tonight. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and quiet wx for the next 24 hours (at least). High temps this afternoon will warm into the mid 20s to near 30 degrees. Low temps tonight will cool back into the teens. && .SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal... Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overall upper air pattern Tuesday morning across the CONUS should be neutral/slightly-negatively tilted troughing across the East Coast, ridging across the central US, and positively tilted troughing located just off the West Coast. There are still some signals for a weak disturbance in the northern stream to dive into the backside of downstream troughing Tuesday, though probably with minimal effects for our area...aside from perhaps some increased cloud cover. Looking for the downstream trough across the East Coast to lift out to the northeast while upstream troughing moves onshore of the Pacific coast. East Asian jet appears to try to move eastward through midweek as ridging off the Pacific coast amplifies/broadens, extending its influence eastward and helping shunt West coast troughing further eastward through the end of the short term. Meanwhile...as ridge axis slowly meanders eastward, high pressure should be in the vicinity enough to lead to relatively quiet conditions for most of the period. Primary Forecast Concerns: Flurry potential for Tuesday with weak northern stream system...Cloud/cover and low temps Tuesday night Weak bit of northern stream energy swinging through Monday night into Tuesday looks like it will be relatively moisture starved...though with some uncertainty in the strength of the vort max as it dives into the back of downstream troughing...can't rule out the possibility of some precipitation falling from the sky at some point early Tuesday (and earlier in the day Tuesday looks like the best chance for anything). Also can't entirely rule out potential for it to fall as freezing drizzle, given unsaturated DGZ, though not confident enough to add that to the forecast attm. As upper level low lifts northeastward up the East Coast and ridging moves closer to the Great Lakes from the west...would expect subsidence to suppress any precip chances later Tuesday into Tuesday night... if not even suppress cloud cover. ...Which leads me to the next forecast concern... Given subsidence and dry air aloft, would not be entirely surprised to see cloud cover begin to clear during the afternoon. As high pressure nears or even perches itself right overhead Tuesday night...could see another of those "calm, clear night" situations with lows dropping below available guidance. Something for future shifts to continue to monitor. Will have to see if pressure gradient between incoming high and East Coast low will still be strong enough early Tuesday night to keep lows from dropping too quickly. Did trend Tuesday night lows down a tad even so. && .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: Medium The drama continues in the long term portion of the forecast...with run-to-run consistency still not superb...though perhaps it's getting better? We'll see when the 12z runs come in later this morning. Even so...it does appear there is some confidence in the idea of troughing moving into the north-central US late in the week into the weekend. Still a lot of details to be worked out, though...and will definitely be monitoring this one closely in the coming days, as there could be some mixed precipitation issues to worry about ahead of the system...and maybe even that flash freeze that was briefly mentioned a few shifts ago when the impactful system first came on our radar (pun slightly intended). (Signals for a strong cold front to sweep through, dropping temps below freezing rather quickly...will of course be monitoring this as well in the coming days.) Otherwise...with potential for cold air over the weekend (decent signals for this continue attm) ...will continue to keep LES PoPs in the forecast for the end of the week into early next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1136 PM EST Sun Jan 31 2021 VFR. Low pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast. This system will continue to support a thin cirrostratus deck across northern MI. Ne winds off of Lk Huron has produced some MVFR stratocu, though this has shifted south of APN. Would not preclude a stray MVFR cig at APN overnight, but VFR will otherwise be the prevailing category. Ne surface winds will back to the north Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM EST Mon Feb 1 2021 Winds and waves will continue to marginally reach SCA criteria across portions of our Lake Huron nearshore area thanks to NE low level winds on the back side of the departing low. No precip is expected across any of our nearshore areas thru mid week as high pressure and dry air maintain control of our wx. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EST this evening for LHZ348-349. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MR SHORT TERM...FEF LONG TERM...FEF AVIATION...JZ MARINE...MR