838 
FXUS64 KAMA 311705
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1105 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

.AVIATION...

For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions are expected at the terminals throughout the valid
TAF period. Breezy wind speeds this afternoon will go light and
variable tonight, but should have a more southwesterly dominant
component by tomorrow morning. Few high clouds will creep into 
the region tomorrow as well. 

Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 532 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ 

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Wind will
start out of the north at 10-20 kts throughout most of the day
before decreasing under 10 kts after 00Z Tuesday to the end of the
TAF period. Skies will remain mostly clear. 

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021/ 

SHORT TERM...through Tomorrow Night...
Dry conditions expected for the short term forecast period.
Northwesterly H500 flow will bring persistent downward motion in
the vertical column limiting any precipitation chances. After one
more day of northerly surface winds today as the residual H500
gradient of the departing system lingers just a bit longer,  
winds will shift back to southwesterly by tomorrow. High
temperatures today under northerly flow will be near average with
temperatures above average by tomorrow with highs into the lower
60s for many locations as the main H500 ridge axis continues to
shift slowly to the east.

LONG TERM...
An upper level ridge will move across the High Plains Tuesday and 
Tuesday night.  Heights will start to fall across the Rockies on 
Wednesday as an upper level trough moves into the west coast.  This 
will encourage a lee-side trough to develop over eastern Colorado 
and eastern New Mexico during the day Wednesday.  This should help 
to increase the winds on Wednesday.

An upper level low near the Southern California coast Wednesday 
night will open up as it gets caught up in a northern stream upper 
level trough.  This trough will then move across the Panhandles 
negatively tilted Thursday and Thursday night.  This trough will 
then get booted eastward as a long wave upper trough deepens over 
the central U.S.  This longwave trough will allow arctic air to 
spill southward.  This arctic air should arrive in the Panhandles on 
Saturday.

Some rain and snow will be possible with the first negatively tilted 
trough that moves across the area Thursday and Friday.  Models have 
been backing off on the amount of precipitation now that the trough 
is much more progressive and open.  Some snow may get squeezed out 
in the arctic air on Saturday.

The warmest day will be Wednesday with highs generally in the 70's. 
Highs on Thursday will be back closer to normal give the extra cloud 
cover and possible precipitation.  Temperatures will then be 
below normal Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$