218 FXUS64 KHUN 282018 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 218 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Tonight) Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Temperatures have warmed into the upper 30s in southern middle Tennessee and lower 40s further south, with abundant sunshine this afternoon. Some scattered high clouds could push back into the area later tonight, but should have little impact on weather conditions. Winds remain from the N to NE around 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph at times. These gusts should end around sunset, but should stay up around 5 mph or a tad higher into the evening hours. This combined with a very dry airmass should help keep temperatures from dropping into the teens tonight. Given clear skies and the possibility of winds dropping off late in the overnight hours, lower to mid 20s look reasonable for most of the area. Fog is not expected as well given the dry airmass in place. .SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday) Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 A strong area of high pressure remains in place in guidance on Friday. Winds should be light with a mostly cloud free day, though an area of high cloudiness could push into NW Alabama along a very weak boundary in the afternoon hours. This should help to bring some warm air advection into the area and along with abundant sunshine, should allow highs to climb into the upper 40s/lower 50s in most areas. Return flow strengthens Friday night, as a strong storm system ejects eastward from the Rockies into Oklahoma and Kansas and the surface high begins to shift east of the Ohio Valley region. Moisture advection begins to increase, but deeper moisture content still remains well west of the area at that time. As the surface low from this storm system quickly pushes northeast into Missouri on Saturday, it pulls most of the stronger lift and deeper moisture with it, keeping most of the precipitation northwest of northern Alabama and southern middle TN. A strong low level jet does develop though during this period ahead of the front. This could lead to some breezy conditions Saturday afternoon with sustained winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph possible. Not expecting any precipitation in the morning and into the early afternoon though, as the lowest layers of the atmosphere still remain fairly dry. Kept a 20 Pop in the afternoon with 30 Pop near the AL/MS border, but most areas likely will not see any rainfall. Guidance continues to keep temperatures fairly cool (only climbing into the 50s) despite the strong low level southerly flow, mainly due to cloud cover moving over the area. Will have to watch to see if models are underforecasting the warm air advection and over forecasting the cloud cover. Temperatures could end up being warmer if that is the case. Precipitation chances quickly ramp up during the late afternoon into evening hours on Saturday. During this period, much stronger lift develops with a 50 to 65 knot low level jet ahead of the front associated with the storm system. This front pushes into central Arkansas towards sunset on Saturday. Soundings look saturated enough for some precipitation to develop shortly after that in the early evening hours. Isolated thunderstorms west of the I-65 corridor cannot be ruled out, but confidence is still very low due to meager instability that is forecast by guidance. Though shear and helicity will be in place, mainly expecting any instability to be elevated in nature, so no strong or severe thunderstorms are expected. Sustained winds will remain breezy between 15 and 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph. If low level lapse rates can become surface based, sustained winds and wind gusts could be higher, but many models do not show this happening right now. As the storm system moves eastward Saturday night into Sunday morning, the heaviest rainfall will likely occur. Looking at a good half and inch to an inch of rainfall with this system. Drier air pushes in behind the front Sunday morning and by noon, expect only isolated showers at best to linger in NE AL. It will remain fairly warm with temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees early in the day, before temperatures drop a bit behind the front. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 218 PM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 High pressure will build into the region Sunday night into Monday which should jump start a period of fair weather across the Tennessee valley through the middle of next week. For Monday, strong northerly flow in wake of the cold front will result in a downright chilly day to kickoff the month of February as temperatures will struggle to climb much above the 40 degree mark as a cold, dry continental air mass filters in. More of the same is expected on Tuesday, with temperatures trending a few degrees higher thanks to abundant sunshine and a more relaxed wind profile. We should get some subtle air mass modification on Wednesday as the ridge shifts east of the area and induces a SE/SSE fetch across the region. With continued mostly sunny and dry weather, expect these winds to help nudge temperatures to around seasonable norms in the mid to upper 50s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 Northeasterly gusts will continue at both TAF sites through 0Z before becoming light. Some gusts of 15 to 20 knots are possible. VFR conditions will continue overnight until the end of the TAF period with some very high clouds possible. Very dry air should keep any fog at bay, despite light winds. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. TN...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...KTW SHORT TERM...KTW LONG TERM...AMP.24 AVIATION...KTW For more information please visit our website at weather.gov/huntsville.