195 FXUS64 KTSA 281748 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1148 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021 ...UPDATE... .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. MVFR clouds are rapidly diminishing across E OK at this time with surface high pressure overhead. VFR conditions are rapidly expanding across the area. At the time of issuance VFR conditions were being observed at all sites with VFR conditions expected to persist through the evening and overnight hours. High clouds may spread into the area late tonight into early tomorrow morning but no major aviation impacts are expected at this time. Winds start to increase from the south tomorrow morning as the next storm system approaches. Gusts near 25kts will be possible for our E OK TAF sites while gusts near 20kts will be possible for our NW AR TAF sites. Snider && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1014 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... Clouds continue to linger across much of E OK and parts of NW AR at this time. Locations beneath the cloud deck are showing a slow temperature rise this morning while locations outside of the cloud deck are showing notable rises in temperatures. The latest guidance and trends seems to suggest that NE OK will likely be the last the break out of the clouds today thus opted to lower temperatures accordingly for a few locations. Otherwise, increasing sunshine across the area today will be a nice change to the previous couple of days. Temperatures warm up quickly and winds increase from the south tomorrow in response to the next system that is expected to bring rain by late Friday night. An update to sky conditions and temperatures will be sent out shortly. Snider PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 506 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ DISCUSSION... The 12Z TAF forecast discussion follows... AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG. Stubborn MVFR cigs are expected to scatter out from south to north thru the day. VFR conditions and broken high cloud cover will prevail during the second half of the forecast tonight. Lacy PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 305 AM CST Thu Jan 28 2021/ DISCUSSION... Persistent low level clouds over the eastern third of Oklahoma and across western Arkansas have kept temperatures from falling as low this morning. It's still a chilly start to the day, with temperatures ranging from the low 20s to low 30s across the region. Clouds should hopefully finally clear out some by this afternoon and give us a glimpse of sunshine as southerly low level flow returns. Today will begin a warming trend for the next few days as temperatures will rise to near normal today as upper ridging begins to build in from the west. Friday will see temperatures warm into the upper 50s as winds increase out of the southwest by Friday afternoon in response to the next system set to affect the area by Saturday morning. High clouds will begin to stream in from the west throughout the day on Friday as another trough approaches. Saturday will bring another chance of rain to the region. Scattered light showers could develop early Saturday morning before sunrise across eastern Oklahoma within a zone of strong, deep southerly flow transporting moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico. As the main wave approaches, widespread rain showers are expected by late morning and into the afternoon. This system will be moving quickly, so the rain will exit the area from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will still be well above normal for this time of year, despite the rain. Strong southerly winds will also accompany this system as the surface cyclone deepens to our west, setting up a rather tight pressure gradient Saturday afternoon. Some places could come close to Wind Advisory criteria, with gusts upwards of 35 mph expected. A trailing cold front will move through Saturday night, which will drop temperatures back down to near normal again on Sunday and bring gusty northerly winds. The roller coaster continues into the next week as temps begin to warm again on Monday into Wednesday, with dry weather expected for the first half of the work week. Another strong system is progged approach by Wednesday night into Thursday, dropping temperatures and bringing more precipitation chances to the area. Bowlan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 42 33 56 48 / 0 0 0 30 FSM 44 29 57 42 / 0 0 0 30 MLC 47 33 57 48 / 0 0 0 30 BVO 41 29 56 45 / 0 0 0 30 FYV 42 27 54 42 / 0 0 0 20 BYV 40 29 53 40 / 0 0 0 10 MKO 43 30 55 45 / 0 0 0 30 MIO 40 30 54 43 / 0 0 0 20 F10 43 31 56 47 / 0 0 0 30 HHW 46 31 57 46 / 0 0 0 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ AVIATION.....21