322 FXUS63 KFGF 260915 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 315 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Hazardous wind chills continue to bring the main impact to the FA, and these will linger through Wednesday morning. Cloud cover continues to be problematic...had thought by this morning there would be some thin or clear spots, especially along the Canadian border or the Lake of the Woods region. Since the entire FA has stayed cloudy, temperatures have been warmer than anticipated. Therefore, wind chills haven't been quite as cold either. However cold is a relative term, and despite being slightly off, see no reason to adjust the wind chill advisory that is currently in effect for the FA. This is the coldest stretch of weather seen so far this winter season, so it pays to keep the word out about hazardous wind chills and dressing appropriately for the cold weather. By later this afternoon into tonight, the surface high sitting over central Saskatchewan should push into southern Manitoba. Therefore, would expect clouds to decrease or push south or southwest...allowing for more clearing to occur in this FA. Tonight should therefore finally see some of those frigid temperatures that have been just west or north of the area. The surface high should move slightly eastward on Wednesday, with increasing clouds again behind it. This should help temperatures recover on Wednesday, when the wind chill advisory is also set to expire. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 315 AM CST Tue Jan 26 2021 Overview... The brief cold snap is expected to come to an end moving toward the latter half of the week as temperatures look to generally climb up to near to slightly above normal values moving toward the weekend and into early next week. While the remainder of the week should remain quiet, the next chance for impactful weather looks to arrive by the weekend in the form of potentially widespread light snow on Saturday. Exact details are still quite variable at this time, but ensemble guidance is slowly starting to come together in a few places, and thus this system will continue to be closely monitored moving forward. Wednesday night through Friday... The upper level pattern will be rather progressive through the weekend as our flow pattern shifts from northwesterly to zonal over the latter half of the week. This transient flow shift will be induced by a brief period of upper level ridging overtaking the Plains. As a result, temperatures will begin their slow ascent back toward normal to above normal values, amidst generally quiet weather. Saturday through Monday... The next pattern disruption, however, will not be far behind as another shortwave traverses the region on Saturday. This shortwave will be the primary driver of our precipitation potential for Saturday. While ensemble guidance is in general agreement on the timing of the shortwave progression, there are still discrepancies on the exact location and intensity of the system at this time. General consensus at this time is leaning toward the solution of widespread light snow across the forecast area. This is supported by ensemble probability of greater than 1 inch in the 50 to 70% range, with probability of greater than 3 inches only in the 10 to 20% range and centered over the southeastern portions of the CWA. Since a number of different outcomes are certainly still possible with this event, confidence in any one outcome is decidedly low. Even with the system passing through on Saturday, temperatures look to remain generally stagnant for the remainder of the weekend into next week. Ensemble guidance does vary some with this as there are some discrepancies regarding the eastward extent of the building ridge following the Saturday shortwave. Regardless, temperatures should still remain near to slightly above normal moving toward next week for an unseasonable start to February. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Low confidence TAF forecast for the 06 issuance. Guidance is not handling clouds and light snow well. Kept VFR CIGs persistent until around 18-00 UTC, with snow ending around 09 UTC, but again this is low confidence. KDVL has been flirting with MVFR CIGs and should continue to do so as long as clouds linger around. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for NDZ006>008- 014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054. MN...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for MNZ001>009- 013>017-022>024-027-028. $$ SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/Rick AVIATION...CJ