550 FSUS46 KLOX 252357 QPSLOX QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA 259 PM PST MON JAN 25 2021 PRECIPITATION FORECASTS IN INCHES ARE PROVIDED IN 3-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 0400 FOLLOWED BY 6-HOUR INCREMENTS UNTIL 1600. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COVER UP TO 1600 ON DAY 1 ONLY. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN ZERO BUT LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE SHOWN AS LGT. THE DISCUSSION COVERS THE PERIOD FROM: MON JAN 25 2021 THROUGH SUN JAN 31 2021. && 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16 SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY... LSRC1:CAMBRIA LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SMRC1:SANTA MARGARITA LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 NIPC1:LOPEZ LAKE LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SLO: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.01-0.05 FTHLS/MTNS 0.05-0.10 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1600-2200 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16 SANTA BARBARA COUNTY... SIYC1:SANTA MARIA LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SBTC1:SANTA BARBARA POTRERO LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 GBRC1:GIBRALTAR DAM LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SMCC1:SAN MARCOS PASS LGT LGT LGT 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SBFC1:SANTA BARBARA CITY LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SBA: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.01-0.05 FTHLS/MTNS 0.05-0.10 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1600-2200 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16 VENTURA COUNTY... FGWC1:FAGAN CANYON LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 HRCC1:HOPPER CANYON LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 MTDC1:MATILIJA DAM LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 VTUC1:VENTURA CITY LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 MORC1:MOORPARK LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 CRXC1:CIRCLE X RANCH LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 VTU: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.01-0.05 FTHLS/MTNS 0.05-0.10 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1600-2200 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && 16-19 19-22 22-01 01-04 | 04-10 10-16 LOS ANGELES COUNTY... WFKC1:WEST FORK HELIPORT LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 BDDC1:BIG DALTON DAM LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 PCDC1:PACOIMA DAM LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 FLTC1:LA CANADA FLINTRIDGE LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 SAUC1:SAUGUS LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 CQT:DOWNTOWN LA LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 MLUC1:MALIBU BIG ROCK MESA LGT 0.0 0.0 0.0 | 0.0 0.0 LAC: PEAK 1-HR RATES: CST/VLY 0.01-0.05 FTHLS/MTNS 0.05-0.10 EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 1600-2200 CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS: YES && DISCUSSION: SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO TUESDAY. RAIN RATES AND ADDITIONAL TOTALS SHOULD STAY UNDER 0.25 INCHES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CREATE A STEADY ATMOSPHERIC RIVER OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. FAIRLY CERTAIN THIS WILL BRING 2 TO 3 DAYS OF NEARLY STEADY RAIN TO SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY, AND LIKELY TO SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF RAIN DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT BEING ON THE FRINGE OF THAT FLOW IN THE LATEST PROJECTIONS, NOT SURE IF IT WILL BE A COUPLE OF HOURS OR MORE LIKE 48 HOURS. WITH THAT SAID, LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY WILL DEFINITELY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK, BUT IF THE STALLED PLUME STAYS TO THE NORTH, THEY WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHEN THE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH. EXPECTING THINGS TO TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR NIGHT. SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES ARE IN STORE FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES, WITH 8 TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SANTA LUCIA RANGE. FOR LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES, 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. EXPECT PEAK RAIN RATES BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES PER HOUR, WHICH CAN RESULT IN DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR RECENT BURN AREAS. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE MOSTLY BETWEEN 5000 AND 6000 FEET WITH FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE. MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. $$ KITTELL