104 FXUS63 KLMK 250844 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 344 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 .Short Term...(Today and tonight) Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 ...Widespread Soaking Rains Today... The mean longwave pattern continues to feature western CONUS troughing and an eastern CONUS ridge. A strengthening 160-170 kt anticyclonic upper jet streak is in the process of developing over the Northeast. Robust upper level divergence in the right entrance region of the jet will be positioned over the lower Ohio Valley this morning. A compact mid-level shortwave trough is rotating NE over the OK Panhandle this morning and will continue across Kansas today. A 1000 mb sfc low is over the Red River Valley and will progress northeast across Oklahoma into Missouri today. Significant low to mid level moisture transport is in progress over eastern Oklahoma/Texas and Arkansas via a 50 kt SW LLJ at 850 mb. A warm front extends eastward across the Southeast. Strong fgen in the 850- 700 mb layer will lift north over southern and central KY this morning on the nose of the LLJ, with PW values surging above 1 inch. A band of moderate rainfall currently over TN will continue to lift north this morning, and widespread moderate to occasionally heavy rain is expected today. It looks to be an all-day soaking rain with a steady east wind maintaining a large temperature gradient from south to north. Speaking of temperatures, Madison IN is still sitting right at 32 degrees. As precip spreads in this morning, we may see brief freezing rain over the far northeastern CWA. Northeast winds gradually increase between now and 12-14z, so a reinforcement of cold air could hold a handful of counties right around the freezing mark. Appreciable ice accumulation is unlikely though, so do not think we'll see much (if any) impact. The sfc warm front will push north across southern KY by mid to late afternoon, where temperatures should crest 60 degrees. Elevated instability does develop from the SW by this afternoon with MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg expected over southern and central KY. As far southern KY gets into the warm sector by 21-22z, precip coverage should be more scattered with the widespread elevated convection continuing across southern IN and central KY. Multiple hi-res models suggest the potential of a narrow convective band located near the Mississippi River at 22z or so. The northern extend of the main line may push east across the southern half of KY this evening, bringing localized heavy rainfall and hail. SPC has continued the Marginal Risk in the Day 1 Outlook for hail. Think large/severe hail would be quite isolated given the limited instability and very moist environment. Multiple reports of small hail is more likely. The cold front sweeps through the area late, with precip quickly diminishing after 06z. Have 24-hour QPF ranging from 1-2.25 inches, with a stripe of 2+ inches over central and southern KY, roughly south of a line from Hardinsburg to Georgetown. Given the potential for convection, localized 3+ inch totals are possible. Given that fact, a Flood Watch was considered. But any significant flooding threat is dependent on convection and therefore isolated in nature. Convection this evening will be narrower and progressive in nature, so flash flooding is unlikely. Streamflow anomalies are all near to much below normal, so think we can handle the rain for the most part. But we could see localized areal flooding in more flood-prone locations. && .Long Term...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021 Tuesday morning, surface low will be located over eastern Ohio with our CWA on the back side. Westerly flow will be in place as lingering wrap around moisture keeps clouds in place across over southern Indiana and northern Kentucky. While clouds linger north of the parkways, skies will be clear across our southern half during the day. Under the cloud cover, temperatures will remain in the 40s all day. Where we get the sunshine, temperatures will warm into the mid/upper 50s with a few locations across our southeast reaching 60. Our break in the weather is short lives as the next system takes shape over the central plains in the form of a strong shortwave. This feature moves across Kentucky during the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening. At the surface, a weak surface low forms over the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday and pushes eastward. With decent cold air in place over the region and plenty of low/mid level moisture reaching the DGZ, model soundings indicate that most of the precipitation should fall as snow Wednesday afternoon and evening, but wouldn't rule out rain/snow mix along and south of the parkways. Continue to think that measurable snow is most likely for at least the northern half of our CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Confidence remains low as models continue to show disagreement on placement and timing of the heaviest precipitation. Thursday, high pressure drops out of Canada as upper level ridging takes hold for the end of the week. We will see dry. cool and mostly clear conditions to end the week. Highs Thursday will be below normal around the low/mid 30s as overnight lows Friday morning fall to near 20. As the ridge begins to shift east on Friday, return flow takes over pushing temperatures back into the low/mid 40s. Models continue to indicate the next system arrive for the weekend as a warm front lifts through the region Saturday into Sunday. Precipitation should fall as all rain as temperatures rise into the upper 40s/low 50s Saturday and Sunday with overnight temperatures staying above freezing in the upper 30s to low 40s. Cold front will swing through late Sunday into Monday as high pressure settles in to start next week. Highs Monday look to be in the 40s. && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021 High confidence for poor flying conditions through the forecast period. Current cigs/vis range from MVFR to LIFR across the region, but we should see conditions decline to low-end IFR or LIFR as a warm front lifts toward the region. Widespread rain will move in toward dawn and persist for most of the day tomorrow. Some elevated instability will contribute to isolated/scattered thunderstorms, with the highest chances across south-central Kentucky. Cigs/Vis will likely not improve much tomorrow, though there is a chance that BWG could lift to MVFR should the warm front lift farther north than currently forecast. One note toward the end of the TAF period for Kentucky TAF sites, particularly BWG. Should the warm front lift well into Kentucky, models prog a strong +60kt LLJ moving into the state during the afternoon hours. This would result in a period of LLWS during daytime hours. Confidence in where the warm front will be tomorrow remains low, so will not include in TAF at this time, but it warrants monitoring in subsequent updates. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Short Term...EBW Long Term...BTN Aviation...DM