165 FXUS63 KFGF 230508 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1108 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1108 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Low stratus and flurries continue to linger with more of clearing trend from south central ND/northern SD and RAP/NAM are now matching this trend with 925-850MB layer RH which was used for timing of flurries through the night. Minimal impacts tonight, and main focus will turn to data for system Sat- Sun when better chances for light accumulations are still expected. No changes during this update for those periods. UPDATE Issued at 657 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Pockets of flurries and widespread low clouds are lingering early this evening. While flurries should taper off by midnight as drier/stable air filters into the region northwest to southeast low clouds may linger holding up temps. I made some adjustments to linger mention of flurries and sky cover to match current trends. Will monitor trends regarding overnight temps. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night) Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Light snow developing tomorrow afternoon the main concern for the short term time frame and even then the impacts will be localized and minor. The rest of today and into the overnight expect the clouds to persist with an occasional flurry possible. Lows tonight will be highly dependent on cloud cover with areas able to fall quickly where pockets of clearing develop otherwise looking like most of the area will stay above freezing in the single digits tonight. Saturday a quick moving short wave will lift NE from SD and bring mid level WAA forcing to the region with snow expanding in coverage from southwest to northeast through the afternoon. Across the north a cold front will aid in producing some light snow fall with these two forcings partially overlapping and bringing a higher amount into the Lake of the Woods area now. Snowfall amounts are expected to range from an inch or 2 along and east of a Wahpeton to Detroit Lakes to Fosston to Warroad line with less than an inch expected to the west of that line. Little wind is expected so there will not be any impacts from blowing or drifting snow. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday) Issued at 240 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Not much in the forecast that points toward impactful weather between Sunday and next Friday. light snow will be ending during the day Sunday, followed by a short window for light snow on Monday. Temperatures start slightly below average before a warming trend climbs temperatures well above average by late next week. As Saturday's troughs continue to push east into the western Great Lakes region, light snow is expected to end for Minnesota locations. A continental polar air mass noses into the area behind these waves out of Canada, but only grazes the area. This will bring temperatures slightly below average for this time of year, with highs remaining in the single digits on Sunday followed by overnight lows below zero. Flow aloft stays zonal as the northern of Saturday's two troughs stalls and weakens within MB/ON, while troughing develops over SW CONUS. This promotes warmer temps to begin entering the region, including a notable period of WAA coupled with a weak shortwave passage around Monday which could lead to some light snow. QPF looks light, and conceptually this makes sense given the weakly forced regime of a weak shortwave trough with a short period of WAA leading to the expectation of broad area of light snow with perhaps some isolated transient bouts of moderate snow. The chance for accumulations over 2 inches is low, ie under 30%. After Monday's snow chance, there is an absence of signal for appreciable precipitation. Flow starts to become southwesterly as upper ridging appears likely over the central CONUS. Guidance remains in strong agreement with this upper ridge. Thus, the chance for getting above average temperatures increases, with afternoon temps likely to reach at least into the 20s by late week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021 Stratus (MVFR) and pockets of flurries continue early in the TAF period across eastern ND and northwest MN, with a trend towards VFR conditions by late evening. There is a chance that a few pockets of MVFR ceilings lingering into the night however (best chances in MN). A system will bring widespread MVFR ceilings back into the region by Saturday afternoon, with increasing accumulating snow chances mainly in far southeast ND and west central MN by the end of the TAF period. Light southwest winds become variable overnight with a shift to the west-northwest Saturday and increase 10-13kt expected (strongest in the Red River Valley and eastern ND). && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...JK LONG TERM...CJ AVIATION...DJR