321 
FXUS63 KFGF 202112
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Winds the primary concern through the evening with ongoing wind
headlines in effect until 9pm. Westerly winds have gusted up to 
60 mph across the Devils Lake basin with gusts better than 50mph 
in the valley. Cause of the winds is the tight pressure gradient 
across the area from SFC low pressure moving from Manitoba to 
Ontario. There a few wrap around snow showers that are expected to
bring a dusting of snow to NW MN through the overnight. SFC cold 
front will push south tomorrow morning bringing north winds and 
some light snow or flurries possible along the frontal passage 
where the strongest CAA initiates some shallow lift. Temps will be
warmest in the morning ahead of the front with falling temps in 
its wake and single digits spreading into the area by afternoon. 



.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Impacts during this period revolve around a potential system and
associated snow impacts in the southern forecast area.

A tranquil Fri to start the period with a temperature regime 
indicative of values closer to late January averages. 

Of increasing interest is the potential for a weekend system, 
currently progged to keep most of the action over South Dakota and 
southern Minnesota. GFS/ECMWF ensemble means offer an envelope of 
QPF solutions between 0.10 and 0.25 inch scraping the SE ND and 
extreme west central MN portions of the forecast area Sat aftn and 
eve. And the WPC QPF is overshooting these values a bit, and if the 
SLR tends toward 20:1 with little wind, we would be in for advisory 
type snow event somewhere south of Interstate 94. So suffice to say 
we can be confident in some measurable snow south of I-94 for Sat, 
with less confidence in achieving advisory amounts. 

The various pieces of ensemble data continue to be mum on anything 
extreme or outstanding with respect to temp or winds; just a 
movement toward temps more typical of late Jan with highs in the 
teens and lows straddling the zero mark. 

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM CST Wed Jan 20 2021

Westerly winds the primary concern today with gusts to 30 to 
50kts and LLWS up to 50kts when mixing doesn't reach the surface. 
Winds will gradually decrease into the evening. MVFR CIGs expected
to develop overnight as winds shift to the north with a cold 
front.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ008-016-026>030-
     038-039-049-052>054.

     High Wind Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024.

MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ001>005-007-008-
     013>015-022-027-029-030-040.

$$

SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK