676 FXUS61 KBTV 201731 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1231 PM EST Wed Jan 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Light snowfall will continue across the western slopes of the Adirondack and Green Mountains through this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will bring snow showers back to the region on Thursday and again on Friday. Cooler and drier weather follows this disturbance this weekend with near to slightly below normal temperatures continuing through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1203 PM EST Wednesday...The heaviest snow has begun to shift into New Hampshire as of noon with light snow continuing across much of the North Country. The back edge of the light snow is pushing through Massena at this time and a steady end of snowfall will continue from west to east this afternoon. In the mean time, light snow will continue with additional accumulations up to an inch likely across much of the region. Previous Discussion...Upper level trough and shortwave energy pushes across our region this afternoon and will see an increase in snow shower coverage during that timeframe. Low level flow will also become favorable for upslope snow showers, especially northwest facing slopes of the Dacks and Northern Greens. Light snow accumulation, above 1500 ft should be around one to two inches, an isolated three inch total would not be surprising. Light snow across the rest of our area should be around a half an inch to an inch. Temperatures will be falling through the day with max temps already achieved across the area. Snow showers will come to an end later this evening, and will only have a brief break in the action before more snow showers moves into the St Lawrence valley during the overnight hours. Surface high pressure ridging, though only brief, will help temperatures to drop sharply tonight, and mins will mainly be in the single digits across our area. Another clipper low will be approaching the region from the Northern Great Lakes region, passing north of our forecast area Thursday into Thursday night. Light snow showers spread into our area by early Thu morning. Not a lot of moisture associated with this system, though good upper level forcing. Will have decently strong channeled flow, southerly across VT and more southwesterly over N NY. Channeled flow will help to push max temps into the upper 20s to lower 30s in the Champlain and St Lawrence valleys, mainly mid 20s elsewhere. Best chance for snow on Thursday will be in our Northern New York zones. From late tonight through Thursday generally a half an inch to two inches of snow can be expected. These two periods are the start of a prolonged period of light snowfall. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 352 AM EST Wednesday...A weakening low pressure system moving from Ontario into Quebec will bring continued light snow showers to the area Thursday night through Friday night. As the center of the low moves to southwestern Quebec on Thursday night, will see a slight increase in moisture, though progged PW values only around a quarter inch show the limited moisture associated with continental system. Nonetheless, will be able to squeeze out some meager snow, with total snowfall amounts from Thursday night through Friday night generally 1-3 inches over the northern Adirondacks and higher elevations of northern Vermont. Southern and central Vermont along with the Saint Lawrence, Champlain, and Connecticut Valleys will see a dusting to an inch. As the system departs to our east Friday night, northerly flow will become established over the region, marking a transition to a colder stretch of weather. Lows Friday night will be in the single digits to low teens. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 352 AM EST Wednesday...Saturday morning will start with a few lingering light snow showers over the mountains, but as the day progresses snow showers will come to an end. The North Country will be on the southeastern periphery of a Canadian high pressure system, which will result in persistent northerly flow through the remainder of the weekend that will introduce below- normal temperatures. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the teens, lows will fall to a few degrees above or below zero. Conditions will also be quite breezy, especially Saturday afternoon when gusts will be in the 10 to 20 mph range. This will allow wind chills to stay near or below zero for much of the day, so bundle up if heading outside. Sunday will be less breezy as the high shifts closer to our area and the pressure gradient weakens, and wind chills between 0 and 10 deg F can be expected. Models continue to diverge on the forecast going into the next work week as a low pressure system originating in the southern Plains tracks eastward. The track of the low as it heads to the East Coast remains somewhat questionable, with the ECMWF and the CMC continuing to keep the system shunted to our south by strong Canadian high pressure while the deterministic GFS shows the system tracking further north and into our area. Little changes to our overall forecast as we continue to favor the drier solutions of the ECMWF and CMC models, but kept in some slight chance (15 to 25%) PoPs for late Monday into Tuesday in case the system does trend north. If we did see precipitation associated with the system, it would most likely be in the form of some light snow, but stay tuned as the forecast continues to evolve. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18Z Thursday...Highly variable aviation conditions across the airspace this afternoon as squall-like snow bands continue to move across the area. For the next several hours, IFR will be the prevailing category for VT terminals as these snow bands move through with intermittent LIFR visibilities is any heavier snow bands. Elsewhere, across NY, mainly VFR is expected with brief MVFR snow/ceilings at KSLK & KPBG through 20-23z. Towards 00z, all sites should improve to VFR as high pressure very briefly moves in. Snow showers and MVFR conditions will return to the airspace towards 10z Thursday and persist throughout the day. Winds will be out of the west/northwest at 5 to 15 kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight before switching out of the south tomorrow around 10 kt. Outlook... Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Neiles NEAR TERM...Clay/Neiles SHORT TERM...Duell LONG TERM...Duell AVIATION...LaRocca