014 FXUS65 KPUB 152220 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 320 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) Issued at 320 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 **Red Flag Warning are currenty effect until 5pm MST for Kiowa, Prowers, Bent, and Baca counties. Winds will remain strong and gusty, although not at the threshold of High Wind Warning criteria, therefore this has been canceled.** A low pressure located over the eastern central plains is continuing to propagate southeastward over the Mississippi River Valley. The tightening of the pressure gradient behind this system, coupled with a jet maxima at the 700mb level with winds of 75-85kts, has allowed for very strong and gusty winds to be present over the eastern plains, which has been strong enough to cause some blowing dust to develop over a large extent of the counties of Kiowa, Prowers, Bent, and Baca. Relative Humidity values are also very low and with such dry and windy conditions, the threat of fire outbreaks does exist as well. These winds will begin to diminish by 5pm, as the low continues to progress further southeastward and allows the pressure gradient to weaken. As another minor shortwave approaches the CWA tomorrow morning, expect winds to begin to increase again and remain primarily out of the northwest. This is a fairly weak and dry system and therefore will only produce a few scattered snow showers, mainly over the western facing slopes of the Sawatch Mountains and Rampart Range, but also some light snowshowers could spill over into the western plains. This system will propagate and only provide some more cooler air advection and some gusty northwesterly winds which could bring down wind chill temperatures as low as 10 to 15 degrees below the actual temperatures...especially over the eastern plains and in the mountain passes and canyons where winds will be stronger. Low temperatures for Friday night will be slightly below average under clear skies, from the upper teens to mid 20s over the plains, around 30 on the eastern facing slopes of the Wet Mountains and southern Sangre de Cristos, and single digits in the higher mountains and valleys. Highs on Saturday will remain cool and slightly below average over most of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) Issued at 320 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 Saturday night through Sunday...Brisk northwest flow aloft will persist across the region, with dry conditions expected. Expect overnight low temps Sat night and Sun night in the teens to 20s for the plains and Upper Arkansas River Valleys, and 0 to 10 above for the San Luis Valley. High temps Sun are forecast to warm into the 40s to near 50F for the plains, and mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys. Monday and Tuesday...The next system to affect the region will cross the Pacific NW Sun night, approaching CO Mon morning. Models have been fairly consistent the past few days on showing this as a split longwave trough crossing the midsection of the country both Mon and Tue, with the southern piece of energy breaking off into a closed low over southern CA, and the northern piece dropping south across the northern Rockies and the Dakotas. This northern piece will push a cold front south into CO on Mon, bringing a chance for pcpn to the eastern mts and adjacent plains Mon aftn and eve through Tue. The southern portion of this trough will provide the lift and moisture for snow across the higher terrain, and especially along the Continental Divide. Snowfall amounts and location will depend greatly on how rapidly this system swings across the area, and how long the upper low center remains over AZ and the CA Baja, but preliminary snow amounts are coming in with 8-12 inches total for the peaks of the eastern San Juans, Sangres and Wets, 4-7 inches for the lower slopes of the mts, and 1-3 inches for the I-25 corridor as well as the San Luis Valley. As for temps, expect slightly cooler readings for Mon, then much cooler for Tue with highs only climbing into the 20s to near 30F for the high valleys, and 30s for the plains. Wednesday through Friday...Low confidence on what will happen by mid- week as the extended range models differ on solutions. The extended procedure produces isolated to low-end scattered pops across the higher terrain all three days, with a focus along the Continental Divide. Feel that Wed and part of Thu will most likely be dry, but at this point feel that sticking with the low grade shot of mt snow is a safe bet. The plains will likely remain dry through the remainder of the forecast period, and temps all three days will hover around seasonal norms. Moore && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 320 PM MST Fri Jan 15 2021 **IFR conditions are currently in place over the far eastern plains of the CWA from KLHX down to KSPD and eastward due to blowing dust coupled by strong north-northwesterly winds and this will continue until 23Z.** VFR conditions will prevail for all other locations throughout the forecasted period. The tightening of the pressure gradient with the low pressure system that is propagating over Iowa and Illinois has produced some strong and gusty winds over much of the CWA with some light to moderate CAT from near the surface due to this, although as that system continues to track further southeastward, this will allow for the gradient to weaken and winds to begin to diminish later in the evening. Winds will begin to pick back up tomorrow morning ahead of the next trough that will move in across the CWA, and some lower CIGs and VIS restrictions should be present in and around the mountain ranges and in the vicinity of -SHSN, although all CIGs will remain above IFR criteria for ALS, COS, and PUB throughout the forecasted period. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ227-228- 231-232-234>237. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH/STEWARD LONG TERM...MOORE AVIATION...HODANISH/STEWARD