338 
FXUS62 KKEY 150322
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1022 PM EST Thu Jan 14 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery reveals a broad and deep belt of westerlies
across the Gulf of Mexico. A potent mid-level jet max raced to the
southeast through the southern Rockies earlier this afternoon,
with lowering heights now apparent over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Surface observations and a recent ASCAT place a decaying
ridge axis over South Florida and the extreme southeastern Gulf of
Mexico. This axis should continue to sag south overnight. If it
were not for the persistent cloud cover, low temperatures would
probably fall into the upper 50s. Thus, lows in the lower 60s to 
near 60 are right on track. Interestingly, ECS MOS guidance
advertises likely rain chances overnight. We will hold onto the
slight rain chances given the current radar depiction. 

&&

.MARINE...
There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect
for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. High pressure across 
South Florida will settle across the Keys tonight. The next cold 
front will move off the Texas Coast and through the western and 
central Gulf of Mexico Friday and Friday night. This front will 
push through the coastal waters of the Florida Keys early Saturday
morning, followed by fresh northwest breezes. Another high will 
move slowly east along the northern Gulf Coast Saturday night 
through Monday, with gentle to moderate north to northeast breezes
prevailing across the Keys. This high will push eastwards into 
the Atlantic Monday night and Tuesday resulting in strengthening 
northeast to east breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS will not quit. A shallow layer of northerlies gives way
to deep veering south-southwesterlies at 020-030. GOES RGB
nocturnal imagery has been useful in seeing through the cirrus,
and the BKN stratus layers do not show any signs of thinning. 
Also, forecast soundings indicate the CIGS may lower briefly to 
012-015 before sunrise. There is high confidence CIGS will erode 
Friday afternoon, with some improvement Friday morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  63  72  64  70 / 10 20 20 -  
Marathon  62  73  64  71 / 10 20 20 -  

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Acquisition.....KR

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