812 FXUS64 KLUB 141728 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1128 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021 .AVIATION... VFR continues for the next 24 hours. Windy conditions will persist for the rest of the afternoon before gradually waning in intensity near civil twilight for all terminals. Blowing dust will be possible at KCDS and KPVW this afternoon, with the possibility for brief periods of MVFR visibility which may require a TEMPO group, though confidence is too low to include at this time. Low- level wind shear is expected overnight at KCDS as a strong jet continues to move overhead. Northwesterly surface winds will intensify late tomorrow morning, especially at KCDS, where sustained winds around 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots are forecast resulting in significant cross winds. Winds will lessen in speed somewhat on the Caprock, though northwesterly gusts up to at least 25 knots are expected at KLBB and KPVW, resulting in a risk for significant cross winds as well. Sincavage && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 524 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ UPDATE... Winds across the Panhandle have trended much higher than guidance and as such, have expanded the wind advisory another column westward and another row southward. We've seen gusts as high as 61 mph at Memphis and the mid 50s along the I-27 corridor. PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021/ SHORT TERM... A rather potent shortwave ejects into the northern plains today before cutting off across the upper midwest CONUS this evening. We'll see increasing NWRLY flow aloft along with some sharp pressure rises behind this morning's cold front. Looking at CDS fcst soundings, 50+ kt winds are evident about 1000 AGL. This is just above a shallow surface inversion which complicates the effective momentum transfer to the surface. Given the strength of the system (and its history) and after collaborating with the neighbors, will hoist a wind advisory for the northeastern 9 counties. We may see some brief 30+ mph winds along the I-27 corridor, but the present data suggests that it should be short lived. In terms of moisture, there is scant little to work with outside of passing clouds, so no worries on precip today. Might see a little blowing dust crop up though with the more moist surface layer, this may help mitigate that issue as well. Finally, there is the issue of fire weather. With the aforementioned winds and RH values down around 15 pct this afternoon, this would often suggest an RFD. However with above normal to normal moisture and cool temperatures, will forego an RFD at this time. LONG TERM... Not much change in the synoptic pattern through the extended forecast. A secondary cold front behind a deepening trough to the east will push through our area tomorrow, with strong winds across the southern Texas Panhandle, northern South Plains and Rolling Plains. Winds should remain below advisory levels though and ease tomorrow evening after sunset. Temperatures will drop into the teens and 20s on the Caprock, with mid 20s east of the escarpment. Temperatures over the weekend will hover around or just below climatological averages for this time of the year due to persistent northwest flow aloft. The pattern begins to change for the beginning of next week. Progressive shortwave ridging aloft Monday will briefly lift highs into the low 60s for most of us, with the requisite breezy surface westerlies you might expect this time of the year. After Monday, the pattern becomes more unsettled for the remainder of next week with guidance differing on whether or to what extent the a strong Pacific low splits from the Polar Jet. Fortunately the signal for at least some precipitation for the middle of next week seems to be getting stronger and was comfortable with the low end POPs provided by the NBM. The temperatures next week are expected to continue to be at or below normal, so precipitation mode for now should follow diurnal trends. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ023>026-029>032- 035>038-042>044. && $$ 09