561 FXUS64 KJAN 132118 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 318 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 .DISCUSSION... Tonight & Thursday... Tonight: After a busy day of sleet/wintry mix, mid-level ridging will build in from the west tonight, ushering in drier air & conditions. With high pressure, efficient rad cooling potential (i.e. PWs around or less than a quarter inch & clear skies), we should be able to efficiently cool into low 30s. A deepening trough & cold front across the Plains will lead to increasing pressure gradient. This will lead to low-level flow increase in the Delta, some wind & warmer lows in the west into the mid-upper 30s. To the east, there will be good rad cooling & lows falling again near freezing. Couldn't rule out some patchy fog/isolated patchy freezing fog, especially in the cooler areas where precip/clouds hung on longer & crossover temps are higher. This would be the case especially near Columbus/Golden Triangle. Did not introduce in the HWO/graphics but something to monitor. However, this threat will likely shift further E than it was this morning so may not be as much potential as it was this morning. Thursday: A nice afternoon is in store as a strong trough & cold front induce strengthening gradient wind across the region. The shortwave ridge axis will shift through the area, leading to low- level WAA/thermal warmth uptick across the region. Highs will be above normal in the low-mid 60s areawide. Winds could be gusty as the gradient increases & mixing increases. Couldn't rule out some 20-25mph gusts ahead of the dry cold front. /DC/ Friday through next Thursday... Much of the long range forecast will be quiet accompanied by cooler temperatures. A long wave trough will swing across the Deep South bringing in 2 main short waves one on the front end and one that will come behind it. The first wave will drag a dry cold front through the area Friday and with the front, models reveal a tight pressure gradient will be present as it sweeps through the ArkLaMiss. With this tight gradient, it is possible that winds Friday especially during the afternoon hours will be really gusty. It is not out of the question that we could see wind gusts in the lower 30s across the area especially locations in the western part of the CWA. Post front, temperatures for Saturday will drop into the mid 40s for much of the area. This dry cooler trend will continue through at least next Monday. The 2nd wave that was previously mentioned is expected to swing through the area Monday. Winds will become more southerly increasing moisture from the Gulf bringing us rain chances next Tuesday-Wednesday. With rain chances increasing for these days, expect warming temperatures to occur as well. Tuesday and Wednesday temperatures will be in the upper 50s and low 60s for both days. /JNE/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Temperatures continue to warm & most of any previous -PL has changed back over to -RA. This could extend into early afternoon & be gone before 13/21Z. Rest of the day, flight cats will remain VFR flight cats through the afternoon & overnight, but some mid- high cloud debris will remain but thin into the afternoon. W-SW winds of 10-15mph, with higher gusts in the NW, are expected, before decreasing tonight. Winds will be similar Thursday but slightly gustier, up to 25mph. Some LLWS up to 25-30kts can't be ruled out at GLH, GWO & GTR, but will give some time for trends to remain to introduce. Also, can't rule out patchy fog overnight, but confidence is low to introduce in the TAFs. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 33 64 35 52 / 0 0 1 0 Meridian 31 62 35 54 / 0 0 3 0 Vicksburg 34 65 34 53 / 0 0 1 0 Hattiesburg 32 65 37 57 / 0 0 4 1 Natchez 36 64 36 54 / 0 0 1 0 Greenville 36 58 35 48 / 0 0 1 0 Greenwood 35 60 34 49 / 0 0 1 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/JNE