930 
FXUS63 KTOP 120916
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
316 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

A shortwave was located over the Appalachians early this morning 
with a closed low present over southern New Mexico. Mid-level 
ridging was building into the Intermountain west with surface high 
pressure across the Southern Plains. Dry and unseasonably warm 
conditions will be the rule over the next few days thanks to 
downslope flow and mostly sunny skies. Temperatures will warm into 
the mid 50s today and into the upper 50s to low 60s on Wednesday. 

Our next system remains on track for Thursday as a trough digs 
across the Plains pushing a cold front through the area Thursday 
morning. Models depict a narrow plume of moisture coincident with
FROPA which could be enough for light rain to develop; have added
in small chance POPs Thursday morning. A closed low develops over
the Upper Midwest with the system slowly moving to the east 
through the day Friday. Moisture wrapping around this system may 
clip portions of northeast Kansas. Temperature profiles would be 
cold enough to support snow, however, any precipitation is 
expected to be light so not expecting any accumulations at this 
point.

Along with the chances for light precip, the passage of the front 
will usher in cooler temperatures and a period of strong northwest 
winds that last through the day Thursday and Friday. Sustained winds 
of 20-30 mph with gusts approaching wind advisory criteria are 
possible both days. Drier air also filters in behind the front 
which, combined with the strong winds, will create elevated fire 
danger; see the Fire Weather section below for more. 

Temperatures will be noticeably colder on Friday with strong winds 
keeping wind chills under 30 degrees for the duration of the day. 
Winds weaken for Saturday although CAA keeps temperatures from 
warming much; highs in the low 40s are expected. A couple of waves 
move through to begin next week although moisture is limited, so 
expecting dry passages at this point. Temps remain seasonal through 
the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1101 PM CST Mon Jan 11 2021

VFR prevails at KTOP/KFOE/KMHK as southwest winds average between
5 to just over 10 kts sustained throughout the forecast period.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 316 AM CST Tue Jan 12 2021

Strong winds and low relative humidity following the passage 
of a cold front will likely lead to elevated fire danger on Thursday 
and Friday. Northwest winds of 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph are 
possible both days. The driest air will be in place on Thursday with 
afternoon RH values falling to 20-25 percent in north central Kansas 
and to 30-40 percent in eastern Kansas. A slight increase in 
moisture is expected on Friday with minimum RH values around 40 
percent. 

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...22
FIRE WEATHER...Flanagan